Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (BRCB)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.57-3.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BRCB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 35.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 288 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
BRCB — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-12
of this Current Report (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly provided by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: The company raised its spending plan from $40–$41 million to $42–$43 million. Spending above the new range could add pressure as it expands stores.
Worry if2026 capital spending for the full year is above $43 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 capital spending is $43 million or less.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA grew 17.2%, below revenue growth of 25.0%. Results at or above guidance would show the business is converting growth into earnings.
Watch forFull-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA is at least $34 million, the low end of guidance.
Also watch for2026 adjusted EBITDA for the full year is below $34 million.
Why it matters: The company opened 19 stores in the first half and raised its 2026 goal to 38. The next results can show if openings stay on pace.
Watch forThe company reports at least 38 new stores opened in 2026.
Also watch forThe company reports fewer than 38 new stores opened in 2026.
Why it matters: Same-store sales eased from 5.2% in Q1 to 4.2% in Q2. A rise would support demand; a further drop would weaken it.
Watch forIn the November 10, 2026 results, same-store sales growth is above 4.2% year over year.
Also watch forIn the November 10, 2026 results, same-store sales growth is below 4.2% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $720 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,492 loss on $10,000 · 74.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.