Brown & Brown (BRO)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$71.42-1.57%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Increase Adjusted Diluted Net Income Per Share: Q2 EPS -0.9% vs consensus; FY26 guidance implies ~-52% YoY decline vs 7% target.
Brown & Brown grew revenue 35% last year. Profit margin rose to 38.5%. Earnings per share improved 7.8% to $1.39. New leaders and services support future growth.
Organic revenue growth is soft and may slow further. Competition is rising. Management shows some volatility and risks remain.
The price is about 11% below our fair value near $78. Analysts expect 10% revenue growth. We see risks to growth but also some upside from new initiatives.
Breaks if: EPS growth falls below 5% in 2026
Breaks if: EBITDAC Margin falls below 37% in 2026-Q4
Breaks if: Organic Revenue growth falls below 2% in 2026-Q4
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a moderate risk profile with elements of a durable compounder. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has shown signs of fragility amid a backdrop of sector tailwinds.
The market appears to have priced in a durable premium, reflecting a belief in BRO's potential despite its recent challenges. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that investors may anticipate some level of earnings growth, but the valuation is considered expensive compared to peers.
Management has emphasized growth in organic revenue, but recent results show mixed delivery. Adjusted diluted net income per share has improved, suggesting some positive momentum, while the EBITDAC margin has remained stable but slightly declined.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like MRSH, AON, and AJG. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support BRO's growth; however, any negative guidance from them could pose risks to BRO's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company missed revenue estimates recently. This indicates potential growth issues. However, strong Q2 results support organic revenue growth. The recent earnings miss is a notable threat to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, BRO is in a watch state due to recent performance declines and sector dependencies. Not investment advice.