Brown & Brown (BRO)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$74.38+0.66%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BRO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BRO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-26
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this current report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: A named executive officer left in August. An update on the role or transition would show whether leadership plans are clear.
Watch forA company filing or release names a successor or sets out a transition plan for P. Barrett Brown's role.
Also watch forA company filing or release reports another senior exit linked to the same transition. Or it says the role is still open.
Why it matters: The adjusted margin fell to 34.6% in Q3 from 36.6% a year earlier. A recovery would ease concern about weaker margins.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted EBITDAC margin reaches or tops 36.6%.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDAC margin is still below 34.6%.
Why it matters: Organic revenue rose 1.2% in Q3 after falling 0.7% in Q2. A further gain would show that growth is holding up.
Supportive ifQ4 organic revenue growth is above 1.2% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 organic revenue growth is 0% or lower year over year.
Why it matters: Total revenue rose 7.4% in Q3, while organic growth was 1.2%. A sharper slowdown would point to weaker growth beyond recent results.
Worry ifQ4 total revenue growth is below 7.4% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 total revenue growth is at least 7.4% year over year, with organic revenue also above 1.2%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $300 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,380 loss on $10,000 · 33.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted earnings per share grew 1.9% in Q3, slower than in Q1 and Q2. Faster growth would show that the pace has improved.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted diluted earnings per share grows more than 1.9% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted diluted earnings per share grows 0% or less year over year.