Brown & Brown (BRO)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$71.42-1.57%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BRO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
BRO — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-10
Executive Vice President — P. Barrett Brown: A named executive officer resigned voluntarily with a substantial severance package, indicating a significant leadership departure.
Why it matters: Earnings performance is critical after the recent miss. Strong results can restore confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share exceed $1.00.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share fall below $0.90.
Why it matters: Stable leadership is important for the company's direction. More changes might show bigger problems.
Worry ifNo new executive changes are expected in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifAnother big executive will leave in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss could signal deeper issues in growth or profitability. This could hurt stock sentiment.
Worry ifAnother earnings report shows diluted net income per share below $0.84.
Less concerning ifEarnings report shows diluted net income per share above $1.06.
Why it matters: Recent changes in leaders may change plans and affect investor trust.
Worry ifNew leadership is announced with a clear strategy for growth.
Less concerning ifNo new leaders are named or there is doubt about who leads.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $284 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,308 loss on $10,000 · 43.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This metric is key for Brown & Brown's growth strategy. A positive trend supports management's focus on growth.
Supportive ifOrganic Revenue with Contingents growth exceeds 1% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOrganic Revenue with Contingents growth falls below 0% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin is key for making money. A steady margin shows good cost control.
Watch forEBITDAC Margin - Adjusted remains at or above 35.7% in Q3 2026.
Also watch forEBITDAC Margin - Adjusted falls below 35.0% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better organic revenue growth shows the company is doing well in a tough market. It shows the company can grow steadily.
Supportive ifQ2 Organic Revenue growth exceeds 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 Organic Revenue growth continues to decline or remains flat.
Why it matters: How Brown & Brown performs against sector trends will show if it can sustain growth. The sector is easing, so relative performance is crucial.
Watch forBrown & Brown's revenue growth exceeds the sector's median growth rate.
Also watch forBrown & Brown's revenue growth falls below the sector's median growth rate.
Why it matters: Earnings results will clarify if the company can sustain its growth momentum. Missed expectations could hurt confidence.
Watch forQ3 earnings show total revenues growing at least 30% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 earnings report shows total revenues growing less than 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans and results. Clear direction is very important.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CEO with a clear strategic vision.
Also watch forOngoing uncertainty or no clear direction after the CEO change.
Why it matters: Growth in this metric reflects earnings strength. It is a key indicator of financial health.
Supportive ifDiluted net income per share - Adjusted increases to $1.10 or higher in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDiluted net income per share - Adjusted decreases below $1.07 in Q3 2026.