Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Brixmor Property Group (BRX)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$29.94-0.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.00 → 1.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BRX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain net debt to adjusted EBITDA at or below 5.3x | Debt management is improving, with net debt to EBITDA improving from 5.4x to 5.3x. | Intact | Net debt to EBITDA rises above 5.5x next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “GUIDANCE • The Company has updated its previously provided Nareit FFO per diluted share expectations for 2026 to $2.35 - $2.37 from $2.34 - $2.37 and its same property NOI growth expectations for 2026 to 5.00% - 5.75% from 4.75% - 5.50%.” “GUIDANCE • The Company has updated its previously provided Nareit FFO per diluted share expectations for 2026 to $2.35 - $2.37 from $2.34 - $2.37 and its same property NOI growth expectations for 2026 to 5.00% - 5.75% from 4.75% - 5.50%.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BRX is a real estate operating business with a growth thesis built on improving existing properties and reinvesting in projects. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance strong and momentum improving, though management and earnings quality are rated neutral.
The valuation evidence describes BRX as cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and low priced-in fragility. The snapshot says the current valuation is justified, but does not provide enough detail to state exactly what growth the market assumes.
Near term, recent operating results provide support: same-property net operating income, or income from properties open through both comparison periods, grew 6.6% in the third quarter, and management raised its 2026 growth outlook. Stabilized projects and a substantial active pipeline support the multi-year growth case, while the Slate agreement is a concrete expansion step whose financial contribution is not yet established in the supplied figures.
The thesis depends on continued delivery against the raised outlook and on reinvestment projects producing the expected income. A guidance cut after the recent increase would hurt management credibility; Federal Reserve rate cuts could help the sector, while weakening results or guidance from major real estate peers could remove a sector tailwind.
For the next one to three years, BRX’s long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent performance and project activity, but it still depends on execution and the broader real estate backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain dividend growth above $0.31 per share | Dividend per share grew from $0.2875 to $0.3075, showing strong capital returns. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.29 next year | Dividend per share: $0.31 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.31. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 26, 20260.3075 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS growth to at least $1.18 in 2026 | A primary condition in Brixmor Property Group's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $1.18. | Under Pressure | EPS guidance falls below $1.10 for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth through leasing and reinvestment | Brixmor grows revenue steadily through leasing and reinvestments, with revenue rising from $320.7M in 2024-Q3 to $354.8M in 2026-Q1. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: 5.5% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 26, 20265.502533 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.11 → $1.01 · observed estimates
$1.51B → $1.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.11 | $1,513,975,010 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.11 | $1,513,975,010 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.11 | $1,513,975,010 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.11 | $1,513,975,010 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.11 | $1,513,975,010 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.13 | $1,511,330,130 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.13 | $1,511,330,130 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.13 | $1,511,900,260 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.13 | $1,511,900,260 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.11 | $1,511,585,260 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.11 | $1,511,585,260 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.11 | $1,511,585,260 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.11 | $1,511,585,260 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.11 | $1,511,585,260 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.10 | $1,505,735,813 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.11 | $1,511,585,260 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.11 | $1,511,585,260 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.11 | $1,511,585,260 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.10 | $1,505,735,813 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.11 | $1,511,585,260 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.10 | $1,505,735,813 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.10 | $1,505,735,813 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.10 | $1,505,735,813 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.10 | $1,505,735,813 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.10 | $1,505,735,813 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.10 | $1,505,735,813 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.10 | $1,505,735,813 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.03 | $1,496,447,813 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.03 | $1,496,447,813 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.03 | $1,497,071,605 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.03 | $1,497,071,605 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.03 | $1,497,071,605 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.03 | $1,497,071,605 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.03 | $1,497,071,605 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.03 | $1,497,071,605 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.03 | $1,497,071,605 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.03 | $1,493,827,865 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.03 | $1,493,827,865 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.03 | $1,493,827,865 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.02 | $1,493,827,865 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.02 | $1,493,827,865 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.03 | $1,494,836,969 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.03 | $1,494,808,489 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.03 | $1,494,808,489 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.03 | $1,494,808,489 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.03 | $1,494,808,489 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,733 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,733 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,733 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,733 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,733 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,733 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,733 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,733 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,733 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,733 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,733 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,731 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,731 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,731 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,731 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,731 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.01 | $1,493,808,731 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.01 | $1,492,288,119 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.01 | $1,492,288,119 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.01 | $1,492,288,119 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.01 | $1,492,288,119 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.99 | $1,490,689,923 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.99 | $1,498,833,812 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.99 | $1,498,833,812 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.99 | $1,505,914,590 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.00 | $1,518,775,078 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.00 | $1,518,775,078 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.00 | $1,518,775,078 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.00 | $1,518,775,078 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.00 | $1,518,775,078 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.00 | $1,518,775,078 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.00 | $1,518,775,078 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.00 | $1,518,775,078 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.00 | $1,525,108,411 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.00 | $1,525,108,411 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.98 | $1,525,108,411 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.98 | $1,525,108,411 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.98 | $1,525,108,411 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.98 | $1,525,108,411 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.98 | $1,525,108,411 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.98 | $1,525,108,411 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.98 | $1,525,108,411 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.98 | $1,525,108,411 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.98 | $1,525,108,411 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.00 | $1,531,725,679 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.00 | $1,531,725,679 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.00 | $1,531,725,679 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.00 | $1,531,725,679 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.00 | $1,531,725,679 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.00 | $1,531,725,679 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.00 | $1,531,875,383 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.01 | $1,532,069,783 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.01 | $1,532,069,783 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.01 | $1,533,027,183 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.01 | $1,533,027,183 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.01 | $1,533,027,183 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.01 | $1,533,027,183 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.01 | $1,533,027,183 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.01 | $1,533,027,183 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.