Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Peabody Energy, Inc. (BTU)
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.02-5.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.60 → 2.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BTU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful use of $225 million convertible senior notes | The $225 million convertible notes improve its financial flexibility. | Intact | Convertible notes issuance fails or is reversed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical energy business with a production-growth effort at Centurion Mine, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: ramp-up progress is real, but recent financial performance is weak and management execution has been mixed.
BTU is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting current assumptions may still be demanding relative to the evidence. Confidence in the valuation model is low, and the snapshot says weak execution is partly reflected, but not a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and a turbulent sector.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated after recent misses, including the July 2026 miss, and a guidance cut would add pressure to the business outlook. Over the multi-year view, Centurion’s ramp is the main operating support: targeted sales are increasing, though reaching the longer-term production rate remains an execution task. Capital-structure actions have progressed, while the dividend has been paid on schedule.
The key swing factor is whether Centurion continues progressing toward targeted sales and its longer-term run rate without further operational setbacks. Near term, guidance and earnings delivery matter, while energy-sector conditions could help or weaken the backdrop depending on whether sector bellwethers keep reporting strong results.
For the 1-3 year view, BTU remains a watch-state cyclical thesis with a potentially supportive production ramp but weak recent results and elevated execution risk. The evidence is mixed, and the long-term case hinges on delivery at Centurion and steadier earnings. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Peabody Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.075 per share per quarter. |
| Intact |
| Dividend falls below $0.075 per share per quarter |
Dividend per share: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.075 per share per quarter. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.075 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue at or above $973 million in FY2026 | A primary condition in Peabody Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $973 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $973 million in FY26 | Revenue: $1.003B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $973 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20261,003,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.77 → $2.70 · observed estimates
$4.83B → $4.71B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.77 | $4,829,781,370 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.77 | $4,829,781,370 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.77 | $4,829,781,370 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.77 | $4,824,763,210 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.77 | $4,824,763,210 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.77 | $4,824,763,210 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.77 | $4,824,763,210 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.68 | $4,795,070,930 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.68 | $4,795,070,930 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.68 | $4,795,070,930 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.74 | $4,795,070,930 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.74 | $4,795,070,930 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.74 | $4,795,070,930 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.74 | $4,795,070,930 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.14 | $4,752,925,896 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.14 | $4,752,925,896 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.74 | $4,778,016,250 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.14 | $4,752,925,896 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.14 | $4,752,925,896 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.84 | $4,621,320,490 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.14 | $4,752,925,896 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.14 | $4,752,925,896 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.14 | $4,752,925,896 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.14 | $4,752,925,896 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.14 | $4,752,925,896 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.14 | $4,752,925,896 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.14 | $4,752,925,896 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.75 | $4,641,000,353 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.75 | $4,641,000,353 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.75 | $4,641,000,353 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.76 | $4,643,677,156 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.76 | $4,643,677,156 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.76 | $4,643,677,156 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.76 | $4,643,677,156 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.76 | $4,643,677,156 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.76 | $4,643,677,156 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.60 | $4,631,105,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.60 | $4,633,109,059 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.60 | $4,633,109,059 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.60 | $4,633,109,059 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.60 | $4,633,109,059 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.60 | $4,633,109,059 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.60 | $4,645,823,345 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.60 | $4,645,823,345 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.60 | $4,645,823,345 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.60 | $4,645,823,345 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.60 | $4,645,823,345 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.60 | $4,645,823,345 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.60 | $4,645,823,345 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.60 | $4,645,823,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.69 | $4,656,811,680 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.69 | $4,656,811,680 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.75 | $4,690,250,659 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.75 | $4,690,250,659 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.75 | $4,690,250,659 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.75 | $4,690,250,659 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.75 | $4,690,250,659 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.75 | $4,690,250,659 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.75 | $4,690,250,659 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.75 | $4,690,250,659 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.75 | $4,690,250,659 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.75 | $4,690,250,659 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.73 | $4,693,736,373 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.73 | $4,693,736,373 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.73 | $4,693,736,373 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.73 | $4,693,736,373 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.73 | $4,693,736,373 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.73 | $4,693,736,373 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.73 | $4,693,736,373 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.70 | $4,707,022,087 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.70 | $4,707,022,087 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.70 | $4,707,022,087 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.70 | $4,707,022,087 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.70 | $4,707,022,087 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.70 | $4,707,022,087 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.70 | $4,707,022,087 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.70 | $4,707,022,087 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.