Peabody Energy, Inc. (BTU)
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.85+4.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Peabody aims for about $973 million revenue in 2026. It keeps paying a $0.075 dividend each quarter. The $225 million convertible notes improve its financial flexibility. Coal demand may support revenue growth near 15%.
The company lost money last quarter with a big EPS miss. Legal troubles could hurt finances and trust. Revenue growth may slow or fall below 15%. The coal sector faces strong headwinds.
The price is about 11% above our fair value near $20. Analysts expect 15% revenue growth. Our model sees risks to growth and profits.
Breaks if: Convertible notes issuance fails or is reversed
Breaks if: Dividend falls below $0.075 per share per quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the energy sector. The current thesis state is cautious due to recent weak financial performance and elevated risk of earnings misses.
The market appears to be pricing in a low level of execution quality and a turbulent sector environment. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, but there is an expectations gap indicating that the market anticipates further challenges.
Management's focus on ramping up production at the Centurion Mine is mixed, with some progress but also challenges. The risk of missing earnings in the near term is elevated, which could further impact sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on inflation trends and sector performance. Favorable outcomes could arise if inflation reaccelerates or if leading companies in the sector continue to perform well.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss is a concern. There is increased legal risk from a lawsuit about the Centurion mine. This lawsuit may hinder production ramp-up at the mine.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue paying a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share to shareholders as part of capital allocation strategy.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company consistently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Dividend payments have been maintained without reduction, demonstrating delivery on this capital allocation commitment.
“Declared quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share on July 29, 2026.”
“Declared quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share on May 5, 2026.”
“Declared $0.075 per share dividend on Feb. 5, 2026, payable Mar. 10, 2026.”
“Declared quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share on Nov. 7, 2025.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $973 million in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BTU's performance will depend on management execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.