Peabody Energy, Inc. (BTU)
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.85+4.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BTU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 11.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
BTU — officer change
Dated 2026-08-28
COO — Darren R. Yeates: The filing discloses a planned transition where the COO is moving to a consulting role as part of succession planning, rather than an abrupt or adverse departure.
Why it matters: Changes in coal volume guidance show demand and pricing trends. This affects revenue.
Watch forSeaborne thermal coal volume guidance increases above 12.7 million tons for 2026.
Also watch forSeaborne thermal coal volume guidance decreases below 12.4 million tons for 2026.
Why it matters: This offering is important for Peabody's finances. It can change cash flow and how money is spent.
Supportive ifThe offering raises $225 million. Investors fully subscribed to it.
Worry ifThe offering fails to raise the targeted amount or sees low investor interest.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability. It also shows a commitment to returns for shareholders. This can make investors more confident.
Supportive ifPeabody declares a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifPeabody cuts the quarterly dividend to less than $0.075 per share in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This issuance helps Peabody be more flexible with its money. It supports its capital plans.
Supportive ifA positive market reaction or more cash flow may happen after the notes settle on June 2, 2026.
Worry ifA negative market reaction or cash flow problems may occur after the issuance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$201 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $583 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,729 loss on $10,000 · 47.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Pricing affects revenue and profits. This is important in Asia, where demand is rising.
Watch forSeaborne thermal coal prices rise above $60 per ton.
Also watch forSeaborne thermal coal prices fall below $50 per ton.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows a commitment to shareholders. A cut may mean financial trouble.
Supportive ifDividend of $0.075 per share is declared and paid as scheduled.
Worry ifDividend is cut or suspended.
Why it matters: Keeping costs low is key to maintaining margins in a competitive market. Higher costs can hurt profits.
Worry ifCosts per ton in seaborne metallurgical coal stay below $140.
Less concerning ifCosts go over $140 per ton. This shows rising operational problems.
Why it matters: This report will show how Peabody is doing financially. It comes after a recent earnings miss.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue is growing. Profitability is better than the last quarter.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing losses. Revenue may be falling further.
Why it matters: New surety plans may help with finances and operations. This is key for reclamation.
Supportive ifLiquidity gets better due to new surety plans announced on June 15, 2026.
Worry ifLiquidity remains tight even with the new surety plans.
Why it matters: Achieving this target would confirm that the mine is ramping up as planned. It is crucial for Peabody's overall sales and profitability.
Supportive ifCenturion Mine reports sales of 1.5 million tons or more in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifCenturion Mine sales fall below 1.5 million tons in the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: Higher costs may show problems in operations. This can hurt profits. Keeping costs low is key for margins.
Worry ifPowder River Basin costs reported at $12.25 per ton or lower.
Less concerning ifPowder River Basin costs reported above $12.25 per ton.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability. It also shows a commitment to shareholders. A cut may mean financial trouble.
Watch forThe company declares a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share for the next quarter.
Also watch forThe company cuts or stops the quarterly dividend payment.