Peabody Energy, Inc. (BTU)
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.02-5.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BTU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -58.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BTU — earnings in line
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, Peabody Energy Corporation (“Peabody” or the “Company”) issued a press release setting forth Peabody’s third quarter 2026 financial results and providing guidance on selected fourth quarter and full-year 2026 targets. A copy of Peabody’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Sec…
Why it matters: Peabody disclosed a planned COO transition to a consulting role. A completed handoff would confirm the planned change.
Watch forA company filing or release names the successor and confirms the COO handoff is complete.
Also watch forA company filing says the transition was delayed or changed, or that another COO left.
Why it matters: Centurion had higher costs during its start-up. Reaching the sales target would show that the mine is ramping up.
Supportive ifPeabody reports 1.5–2.0 million tons of Centurion sales in H2 2026, with costs moving closer to its target range.
Worry ifH2 Centurion sales fall below 1.5 million tons, or costs stay above the guided range as production rises.
Why it matters: Q2 seaborne met costs were $155.08 per ton, mainly due to Centurion start-up costs. Lower Q3 costs would show progress.
Worry ifQ3 seaborne met costs exceed $140 per ton, above the top of the $130–$140 guidance range.
Less concerning ifQ3 seaborne met costs land at or below $140 per ton, within guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$187 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $611 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,691 loss on $10,000 · 56.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.