Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Burlington Stores (BURL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$250.77-2.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.54 → 13.51 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BURL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EPS near $11.62 in fiscal 2027 | The company raised EPS guidance to $11.62 for fiscal 2027. | Under Pressure | EPS guidance falls below $11.45 for fiscal 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 24, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BURL is a growth-oriented retailer with a durable premium valuation, rather than a turnaround or deep-value case. Its long-term thesis is intact and recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but confidence is medium and risk is elevated.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, reflecting expectations for durable growth. The evidence labels the premium as justified, but also shows a negative expectations gap, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the business delivers; confidence in that estimate is low.
Near-term results have been strong: recent sales, earnings, and margins improved, and management’s growth priorities remain on track. The store-opening plan is consistent but not yet confirmed by reported store-count changes. Near-term earnings risk is rated low, though past misses and a downward trend in earnings surprises remain concerns.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued sales and earnings growth, margin improvement, and delivery on planned store expansion. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while results and guidance from TJX, ROST, and LULU could signal whether the sector backdrop is strengthening or weakening.
BURL’s operating trend supports an intact 1-to-3-year thesis, but its expensive valuation makes continued execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit rises with operating income up $9.8M and net income up $13.9M from last year. |
| Intact |
| Net income falls below $100M next year |
Net income: $184.304M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $114M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 27, 2026184,304,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EPS grew 26% versus the first quarter of last year, which represented our 14th consecutive quarter of double digit EPS growth.” “Our updated Fiscal 2026 guidance is for comp growth of 3% to 4% and EPS growth of 16% to 18%.”” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Improve operating income by at least $9M | Profit rises with operating income up $9.8M and net income up $13.9M from last year. | Intact | Operating income falls below $130M next year | Operating income: $251.48M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $142M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 27, 2026251,480,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth near 14% YoY | A primary condition in Burlington Stores's published investment case. The stated target is >=14% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year | Revenue growth: 10.99% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 27, 202610.986477 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Mr. O’Sullivan continued, “Total sales increased 14%, while comparable store sales increased 6%, well ahead of our guidance.” “For Fiscal Year 2026 (the 52-weeks ending January 30, 2027), the Company now expects: • Total sales to increase in the range of 10% to 11% on top of the 9% increase during Fiscal 2025; this assumes comparable store sales will increase in the range of 3% to 4%, on top of the 2% increase during Fiscal 2025; • Capital expenditures, net of landlord allowances, to be approximately $875 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.73 → $13.51 · observed estimates
$13.97B → $13.90B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.73 | $13,969,298,657 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.73 | $13,969,298,657 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.73 | $13,969,298,657 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.73 | $13,969,298,657 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.84 | $13,993,498,660 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.73 | $13,969,240,981 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.99 | $14,070,494,455 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.99 | $14,070,494,455 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.99 | $14,070,494,455 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.99 | $14,070,494,455 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.99 | $14,070,494,455 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.99 | $14,083,170,599 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.99 | $14,083,170,599 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.99 | $14,083,170,599 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.99 | $14,083,170,599 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.71 | $13,979,723,720 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.71 | $13,979,723,720 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.71 | $13,979,723,720 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.69 | $13,982,334,831 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.69 | $13,982,334,831 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.69 | $13,982,334,831 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.69 | $13,982,334,831 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.69 | $13,982,334,831 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.69 | $13,982,334,831 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.69 | $13,982,334,831 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.69 | $13,982,334,831 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.69 | $13,982,334,831 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.69 | $13,982,334,831 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.69 | $13,982,334,831 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.69 | $13,982,334,831 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.69 | $13,982,334,831 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.69 | $13,982,313,536 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.69 | $13,982,313,536 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.69 | $13,982,313,536 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.69 | $13,982,313,536 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.69 | $13,982,313,536 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.69 | $13,982,313,536 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.69 | $13,982,313,536 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.69 | $13,982,313,536 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.69 | $13,982,313,536 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.69 | $13,982,313,536 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.69 | $13,982,313,536 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.69 | $13,982,313,536 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.54 | $13,907,411,798 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.54 | $13,900,465,837 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.54 | $13,900,465,837 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.55 | $13,900,465,837 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.55 | $13,900,465,837 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.55 | $13,900,465,837 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.55 | $13,900,465,837 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.55 | $13,900,465,837 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.51 | $13,900,465,837 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.51 | $13,900,465,837 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.51 | $13,900,465,837 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.51 | $13,900,443,290 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.51 | $13,900,443,290 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.51 | $13,900,443,290 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.51 | $13,900,443,290 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.51 | $13,900,443,290 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-05 | $13.51 | $13,900,443,290 | 11 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.