Burlington Stores (BURL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$250.77-2.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BURL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers
BURL — President transition
Dated 2026-08-04
Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer — Matthew Pasch: Mr. Pasch is departing from the Company effective September 1, 2026.
Why it matters: The guide points to lower Q3 adjusted EPS than last year. The result tests whether the full-year earnings plan stays on track.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EPS is below $1.60 per share.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EPS reaches or exceeds $1.70 per share.
Why it matters: The store plan is a stated growth priority, but the inputs report no completed store count for this year. Store openings also support the sales plan.
Worry ifBurlington reports about 115 net new stores opened or on pace to open in Fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifBurlington cuts its 115-store plan or reports a clear shortfall in net new stores by year-end.
Why it matters: Burlington plans to put the refunds back into sharper deals. The result may show whether the planned spending supports sales without hurting margins more than guided.
Watch forThe company says it spent about 60% of the $55 million refunds in Q4. Full-year adjusted EBIT margin rises 20–40 basis points.
Also watch forThe company says Q4 refund spending was far from 60%, or full-year adjusted EBIT margin fell year over year.
Why it matters: The November report is the next named test of the raised sales and EPS outlook. A guide cut would weaken the recent growth story.
Watch forOn November 24, Burlington keeps or raises its 3%–4% comp growth and $11.77–$11.97 adjusted EPS guides.
Also watch forOn November 24, Burlington cuts its full-year comp or adjusted EPS guide below those ranges.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $408 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,893 loss on $10,000 · 38.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management plans a Q3 margin drop even as it guides to full-year margin growth. A smaller drop would ease that tension.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBIT margin falls by less than 60 basis points year over year, or rises.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBIT margin falls by more than 80 basis points year over year.