Burlington Stores (BURL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$265.33+2.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BURL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BURL — President transition
Dated 2026-08-04
Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer — Matthew Pasch: Mr. Pasch is departing from the Company effective September 1, 2026.
Why it matters: This range indicates how well the company is managing costs and driving profits.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported in Q2 is within the range of $2.05 to $2.20.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported in Q2 is below $2.05.
Why it matters: This margin increase shows that the company is running well. It also shows management's goals.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBIT margin increases by 30 to 60 basis points in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBIT margin changes by less than 30 basis points.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows how well the company controls costs and boosts sales. This is key for making more money over time.
Supportive ifOperating income growth is reported for Q2 compared to Q1.
Worry ifOperating income is lower than in Q1.
Why it matters: The adjusted EPS guidance shows future profit potential. Changes may mean shifts in expectations.
Watch forManagement confirms or raises full year adjusted EPS guidance of $11.45 to $11.80.
Also watch forManagement lowers the full year adjusted EPS guidance to below $11.45.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$128 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $403 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,093 loss on $10,000 · 30.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is key to Burlington's growth strategy. It shows their commitment to expanding market presence.
Supportive ifBurlington opens 115 net new stores as planned for Fiscal 2026.
Worry ifBurlington opens fewer than 100 net new stores in Fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This range shows how well Burlington controls costs. It also shows their financial health.
Watch forAdjusted EPS lands between $1.60 and $1.70 for Q3.
Also watch forAdjusted EPS falls below $1.60 for Q3.
Why it matters: This range is critical to confirm if the company can sustain its growth momentum. It reflects management's guidance and market conditions.
Supportive ifComparable store sales growth lands between 1% and 3% for Q3.
Worry ifComparable store sales growth falls below 1% for Q3.
Why it matters: If they exceed this level, it shows strong earnings growth. It also supports management's plan.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 exceeds $276 million, which is a 50% increase YoY.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 is below $276 million.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is important for revenue growth. It shows management's focus on expansion.
Supportive ifManagement announces plans to open 115 net new stores in Fiscal 2026.
Worry ifManagement plans to open fewer than 110 new stores.
Why it matters: Management plans to reinvest tariff refunds, which could affect margins and earnings. This will show how well they manage costs.
Watch forEarnings are better because of tariff refunds that were reinvested.
Also watch forEarnings decline despite the reinvestment of tariff refunds.