Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Busey Corp. (BUSE)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$28.67-2.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.75 → 2.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BUSE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain regular dividend payments | A supporting condition in First Busey Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase quarterly dividend. | Intact | Dividend cut or suspension in 2026 | Dividend maintained at $0.26/share BUSE declared a $0.26 quarterly cash dividend on October 13, 2026, confirming continued regular payments. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BUSE is a regional bank with a measured growth thesis, not a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact, though recent results include an earnings miss and the evidence snapshot gives management execution a volatile rating.
Valuation is described as cheap versus peers, while the overall value assessment is neutral and the priced-in tag is justified. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially low; valuation has also risen recently, while fragility remains low.
Near term, the latest quarter's earnings miss and a run of consecutive misses make execution worth watching, despite a low assessed miss risk. Over the multi-year view, deposit growth and higher wealth revenue support the business, while expense discipline is mixed: the efficiency ratio improved year over year but worsened sequentially.
The thesis depends on continued deposit growth, stronger fee income, and better control of operating costs. A guidance cut or rate cuts from the current level would be unfavorable risks; continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers could support broader financial-sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, BUSE’s thesis has meaningful support from recent business growth, but the earnings miss and uneven management execution leave clear questions to monitor. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in First Busey Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0.67 USD per share. |
| Improving |
| EPS falls below $0.67 in 2026-Q1 |
Diluted EPS: $0.61 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.67 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 5, 20260.61 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase share repurchase authorization by 4 million shares | The bank expands share buybacks by 4 million shares to return capital. | Intact | No increase or reduction in share repurchase authorization in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.71 → $2.67 · observed estimates
$0.82B → $0.79B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.71 | $821,531,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.71 | $821,601,300 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.71 | $821,531,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.71 | $821,531,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.71 | $821,531,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.71 | $821,531,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.71 | $821,531,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.71 | $821,531,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.72 | $809,731,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.72 | $809,731,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.73 | $799,900,670 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.73 | $799,900,670 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.73 | $799,900,670 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.73 | $799,900,670 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.73 | $799,900,670 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.73 | $799,900,670 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.73 | $799,900,670 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.73 | $799,900,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.74 | $802,150,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.74 | $802,150,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.74 | $802,150,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.74 | $802,150,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.74 | $802,150,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.74 | $802,150,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.74 | $802,150,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.74 | $802,150,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.74 | $802,150,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.75 | $802,950,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.75 | $802,950,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.75 | $802,950,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.75 | $802,950,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.75 | $802,950,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.75 | $802,950,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.75 | $802,950,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.74 | $801,762,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.70 | $795,501,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.68 | $792,351,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.67 | $792,017,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.67 | $792,017,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.67 | $792,017,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.67 | $792,017,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.67 | $792,017,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.67 | $792,017,667 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.