First Busey Corp. (BUSE)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$30.66-0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BUSE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
BUSE — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-07
Other Events. On August 7, 2026, First Busey Corporation declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.515625 per depositary share on its 8.25% Fixed-Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock. The dividend is payable on September 1, 2026, to stockholders of record as of August 17, 2026. Signature Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized. FIRST…
Why it matters: If assets under care go over $17 billion, it shows strong growth. This matches management's goal to grow this area.
Supportive ifWealth management assets were above $17 billion. This shows growth in this area.
Worry ifWealth management assets were below $16.5 billion. This suggests challenges in growth.
Why it matters: More share buybacks mean management trusts the company's value. It shows their money plan.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $63.1 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases are below $63.1 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows commitment to shareholders. This is important for gaining investor trust.
Supportive ifThe company declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.26 per share for Q3.
Worry ifThe company cuts the quarterly cash dividend below $0.26 per share.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact First Busey Corp. negatively.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: EPS growth shows the company is making money and managing well. It means they can grow earnings even when times are tough.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS exceeds $0.69, showing continued growth from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS is below $0.69. This shows earnings growth is slowing down.
Why it matters: EPS growth shows the company is making more money. This can bring in more investors.
Supportive ifBusey reports adjusted diluted EPS growth of more than 15% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifEPS growth is under 10% year over year. This may mean problems with making money.
Why it matters: Net interest margin changes affect profits. They show how well the bank earns interest.
Watch forNet interest margin in Q3 2026 is above 3.72%. This shows better profitability.
Also watch forNet interest margin in Q3 2026 is below 3.62%. This signals possible challenges.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show that management trusts the company's value and growth.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement of more share repurchases beyond the current 4,903,775 shares.
Worry ifThere are no new announcements on share repurchases. The repurchase program may be reduced.
Why it matters: If net charge-offs stay below 0.20%, it shows strong asset quality. This reflects management's conservative credit risk approach.
Supportive ifNet charge-offs were below 0.20%. This shows strong asset quality.
Worry ifNet charge-offs were above 0.25%. This suggests a drop in asset quality.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio shows better cost control. It means the company is running well.
Supportive ifEfficiency ratio is now below 54.0%.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio gets worse or stays above 54.0%.
Why it matters: Net interest margin affects profits. A drop may show problems in the lending market.
Worry ifNet interest margin for Q2 2026 is below 3.77%. This indicates possible issues.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin for Q2 2026 is above 3.77%. This shows stability.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may mean weaker credit quality. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs rise above 0.19%.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain at or below 0.19%.
Why it matters: Growth in wealth management assets shows the company can attract and keep clients. This helps increase fee income.
Supportive ifWealth management assets are over $16.51 billion in Q3. This shows strong client inflows.
Worry ifWealth management assets drop or stay under $16.51 billion. This suggests clients are leaving or demand is weak.
Why it matters: Changes in net interest margin show how well the bank manages interest income and costs.
Watch forNet interest margin rises above 3.72%. This means the bank is generating more income.
Also watch forNet interest margin falls below 3.72%. This suggests the bank is having trouble managing interest income.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $203 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,182 loss on $10,000 · 11.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.