First Busey Corp. (BUSE)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$28.67-2.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BUSE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BUSE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-27
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is being “furnished” and will not, except to the extent required by applicable law or regulation, be deemed “filed” by Busey for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor will any of such information or exhibits be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (“Securit…
Why it matters: One large commercial loan drove the jump in credit costs. A return to regular payments would ease that pressure.
Worry ifThe loan stays on non-accrual, takes another charge-off, or needs more loan-loss reserves in Q4.
Less concerning ifBusey reports the loan is back on accrual, with no added charge-off or reserve need.
Why it matters: Deposits grew at an 11% annual pace for two quarters. Growth from core customers would show that this is more than seasonal cash.
Supportive ifQ4 deposits grow by at least 2% from Q3, and Busey links the rise to core customer deposits.
Worry ifQ4 deposits are flat or lower, or most growth again comes from seasonal public funds.
Why it matters: Busey bought back $188.4 million of shares through Q3 and reported 12.5% core capital. Q4 results will show how it balances both.
Watch forBusey reports more Q4 share repurchases and year-end core capital stays at or above 12.5%.
Also watch forYear-end core capital drops below 12.5%, or Busey reports no more Q4 repurchases.
Why it matters: Wealth fees add income beyond loans. Q3 revenue rose 15.5% from a year earlier.
Supportive ifQ4 wealth management revenue is more than 15.5% above Q4 2025.
Worry ifQ4 wealth management revenue is flat or lower than Q4 2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $194 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,182 loss on $10,000 · 11.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A lower ratio means Busey spends less to earn each dollar of revenue. The ratio rose from 54.0% in Q2 to 54.4% in Q3.
Supportive ifQ4 efficiency ratio is below 54.4%.
Worry ifQ4 efficiency ratio is 54.4% or higher.