Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. (BWMN)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$43.00+0.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.47 → 2.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BWMN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Securing government contracts worth $22 million or more | It won a $22 million government contract. | Intact | No new government contracts worth $10 million or more in 12 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth story, not yet a proven durable compounder, because the company remains loss-making. The multi-year view is intact, with improving recent financial performance and management priorities on track, but the evidence is mixed on cash generation.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not fully aligned with the evidence. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, and fragility is low, but that does not remove the risk tied to execution or valuation.
Near-term, revenue guidance and backlog have grown, and operating income improved sharply in 2026-Q2; however, cash from operations turned negative that quarter. Consecutive earnings misses, a recent litigation filing, and a headwind from the sector backdrop add near-term uncertainty.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue growth and government contract expansion alongside better cash conversion. A guidance reversal after recent increases would damage management credibility, while results and guidance from industrial bellwethers could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
As of 2026-10-31, the long-term thesis remains intact, but the growth evidence must translate into steadier earnings and cash generation to support an expensive valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margin management is a challenge but could improve. |
| Recovered |
| Operating income falls below $0.1 million in any quarter |
Operating income: $8.132M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $0.1 million in Q1 2026 and improving. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 20268,132,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Improving cash conversion and reducing leverage remain important execution priorities, and we expect to make meaningful improvements to both in the second half of the year.” “We remain focused on converting backlog, increasing production efficiencies, improving cash generation, and delivering on the benefits our investments afford us.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches about $530 million in 2026 | Bowman raised revenue guidance to about $530 million for 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $470 million in FY26 | Revenue: $146.125M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$530 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026146,125,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We made meaningful advances during the second quarter, with net service billing increasing by more than 19%, organic growth accelerating to 13%, Adjusted EBITDA margin nearing 19%, and backlog reaching $659 million,” said Gary Bowman, founder and CEO.” ““Bowman is in a strong position coming out of the first quarter with record-setting backlog growth that positions us for outsized organic growth over the next couple of years,” said Gary Bowman, founder and CEO.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.40 → $2.47 · observed estimates
$0.58B → $0.59B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.40 | $584,664,988 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.40 | $584,664,988 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.39 | $583,528,788 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.38 | $702,161,480 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.38 | $702,161,480 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.38 | $702,161,480 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.38 | $702,161,480 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.38 | $702,161,480 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.38 | $702,161,480 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.38 | $702,161,480 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.38 | $702,161,480 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.38 | $702,161,480 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.38 | $702,161,480 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.38 | $702,161,480 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.39 | $583,528,788 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.38 | $702,161,480 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.38 | $702,161,480 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.39 | $583,528,788 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.39 | $583,528,788 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.52 | $705,116,280 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.39 | $583,528,788 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.39 | $583,528,788 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.39 | $583,528,788 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.39 | $583,528,788 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.39 | $583,528,788 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.39 | $583,528,788 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.39 | $583,528,788 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.51 | $590,109,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.51 | $590,109,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.47 | $590,115,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.47 | $590,115,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.47 | $590,109,200 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.