Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. (BWMN)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$42.93-0.07%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BWMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BWMN — litigation filed
Dated 2026-10-27
Other Events. On October 5, 2026, Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. (the “ Company ”) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “ SEC ”) a definitive proxy statement on Schedule 14A (the “ Definitive Proxy Statement ”) relating to the virtual special meeting of stockholders (the “ Special Meeting ”) to be held on November 4, 2026 to consider certain proposals related to the Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of August 10, 2026 (the “ Merger Agreement ”), by and among the Comp…
Why it matters: Bowman kept this margin range in Q2 while investing in staff and equipment. Meeting it would show those costs did not erase margin gains.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin, net, is at least 17.2% and no more than 17.7%.
Worry ifBowman cuts its margin outlook below 17.2%, or reports a full-year margin below 17.2%.
Why it matters: A lawsuit could delay the merger vote or closing. A ruling that changes deal terms could also affect the transaction.
Worry ifA court order blocks or delays the vote or closing, or requires a change to the deal terms.
Less concerning ifThe case is dismissed or settled without changing the vote date, deal terms, or closing conditions.
Why it matters: Shareholders vote on the $43-per-share cash deal on November 4. The deal still needs regulatory approval and other closing conditions.
Watch forShareholders approve the merger. The company later reports that all needed approvals are in place and all closing conditions are met.
Also watch forShareholders reject the merger, a regulator blocks it, or the merger deal ends.
Why it matters: The deal sets a cash price of $43 per share and a fourth-quarter 2026 close target. A delay or failed close would break that timeline.
Watch forA company filing or release says the merger closed by December 31, 2026, at $43 per share.
Also watch forThe company reports a delay past 2026, a failed closing condition, or that the merger deal has ended.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$12 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $380 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,303 loss on $10,000 · 43.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Bowman held this revenue outlook in Q2 after raising it in May. Results within the range would support its growth plan.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 net revenue is at least $520 million and no more than $540 million.
Worry ifBowman cuts its 2026 net revenue outlook to below $520 million, or reports full-year revenue below $520 million.