Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. (BWMN)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.43-0.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BWMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BWMN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “ Securities Act ”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows future revenue potential. It shows demand for services.
Supportive ifBacklog growth exceeds 55.9% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifBacklog growth falls below 50% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows strong chances for future money and project work.
Supportive ifBacklog grows beyond $659 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifBacklog drops or stays under $658 million.
Why it matters: Recovery in operating income is important for making money. It shows better cost control.
Supportive ifOperating income rises to over $1 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income stays below $500,000 in Q2.
Why it matters: Winning more government contracts is crucial for growth. It signals demand and operational strength.
Supportive ifNew government contracts increase by at least 10% in Q3.
Worry ifGovernment contracts decrease or stay flat in Q3.
Why it matters: Getting more government contracts would increase revenue. It would also support growth plans.
Supportive ifNew government contracts or changes over $100 million are made public.
Worry ifNo new government contracts or amendments announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This growth rate indicates how well Bowman is converting its backlog into revenue. A drop would raise concerns about execution.
Worry ifQ3 net service billing growth is below 12%. This shows weaker conversion of backlog.
Less concerning ifQ3 net service billing growth above 12%, showing strong backlog conversion.
Why it matters: The raised revenue guidance shows growth confidence. This impacts how investors feel.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue guidance aligns with the raised full-year guidance of $520-$540 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue guidance is lowered below the current range.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow from operations is key for growth and lowering debt. It shows financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifCash from operations was positive for Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations remains negative for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows confidence in future growth. It can boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance for 2026 to more than $540 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance for 2026 to less than $520 million.
Why it matters: Securing more government contracts can boost revenue and support growth plans. This is key for Bowman's strategy.
Supportive ifBowman announces a new government contract worth more than $150 million.
Worry ifBowman fails to secure any new government contracts in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This growth rate helps us see demand and efficiency. A drop below 10% may mean weaker performance.
Worry ifOrganic net service billing growth reported below 10% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOrganic net service billing growth remains above 10% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in margin may show rising costs or inefficiencies. This can hurt overall profits. Keeping margins is important for investor trust.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 17% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin remains at or above 17% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If peers like RTX continue strong performance, it may highlight Bowman’s weaknesses.
Worry ifRTX's composite insight score goes up above 20.
Less concerning ifRTX's composite insight score drops below 15.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the industrials sector picks up, it could boost Bowman’s outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up to about 8% each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The merger could change Bowman’s plans and financial health. If the deal is confirmed, it shows strong investor trust.
Supportive ifMerger with Bernhard Capital Partners closes as planned in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027.
Worry ifThe merger does not close because of regulatory issues or other problems.
Why it matters: If Bowman raises its revenue forecast again, it shows strong growth confidence. This could boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifBowman increases its revenue guidance for 2026 above $540 million.
Worry ifBowman maintains or lowers its revenue guidance for 2026 below $520 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $390 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,303 loss on $10,000 · 43.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.