Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BWX Technologies (BWXT)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$114.96-5.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.25 → 5.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BWXT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow reaches at least $315 million in 2026 | Free cash flow is strong, with guidance raised to $315-$330 million for 2026. | Broken | Free cash flow falls below $275 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $114.972M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $315 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026114,972,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented industrial business with a thesis that depends on continued revenue and earnings expansion. The thesis is intact, and recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, though risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
BWXT is expensive versus peers, with a valuation premium of 1.07 and an expectations gap of -0.21, meaning expectations appear demanding relative to the evidence. The priced-in assessment says the valuation is justified and fragility is low, but those judgments have medium confidence.
Near term, recent results show growth: second-quarter revenue rose 18% year over year, while operating income and diluted earnings per share also increased. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance, and its stated priorities are on track, but the evidence flags a prior deep earnings miss and elevated overall risk.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustaining revenue growth and converting it into stronger operating income and earnings. A reversal of the recent guidance increase would damage management credibility; continued strength or weakness among industrial bellwethers could also shape the sector backdrop.
The multi-year view remains intact, supported by recent execution, but expensive valuation and elevated risk make delivery against expectations important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in BWX Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is > $91.1 million quarterly. |
| Intact |
| Net income falls below $75.5 million quarterly |
Net income: $101.712M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: > $91.1 million quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 2026101,712,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Guidance BWXT reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance and tightened the ranges for its adjusted EBITDA (1) ,non-GAAP EPS (1) , and free cash flow (1) guidance.” ““We now anticipate adjusted EBITDA of $662 million-$672 million, non-GAAP EPS of $4.70-$4.80, and $345 million-$360 million of free cash flow.”” Diluted EPS was $1.11 in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Operating income improves beyond $106.7 million quarterly run rate | Profit rises with operating income improving from $96.6M to $106.7M in one year. | Broken | Operating income falls below $96.6 million quarterly | Operating income: $132.077M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: > $106.7 million quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 2026132,077,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Guidance BWXT reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance and tightened the ranges for its adjusted EBITDA (1) ,non-GAAP EPS (1) , and free cash flow (1) guidance.” ““We now anticipate adjusted EBITDA of $662 million-$672 million, non-GAAP EPS of $4.70-$4.80, and $345 million-$360 million of free cash flow.”” Operating income was $132.077 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows to at least $3.75 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in BWX Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.75 billion. | Broken | Revenue falls below $3.1 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $952.972M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.75 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 2026952,972,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Guidance BWXT reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance and tightened the ranges for its adjusted EBITDA (1) ,non-GAAP EPS (1) , and free cash flow (1) guidance.” ““Reflecting our strong first half performance, contribution from the recently completed PCG acquisition, and confidence in our execution over the remainder of the year, we are raising our 2026 financial guidance,” said Geveden.” Revenue was $952.972 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.19 → $5.20 · observed estimates
$4.17B → $4.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.19 | $4,165,663,910 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.19 | $4,165,663,910 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.19 | $4,165,663,910 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.19 | $4,165,663,910 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.22 | $4,130,983,771 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.19 | $4,165,663,910 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.19 | $4,163,731,820 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.19 | $4,163,731,820 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.19 | $4,163,731,820 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.19 | $4,163,731,820 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.23 | $4,131,317,076 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.19 | $4,163,731,820 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.25 | $4,194,791,550 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.19 | $4,168,871,760 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.29 | $4,166,821,887 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.25 | $4,194,843,320 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.25 | $4,194,843,320 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.29 | $4,166,821,887 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.25 | $4,201,155,820 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.25 | $4,194,439,450 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.29 | $4,166,821,887 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.29 | $4,166,821,887 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.29 | $4,166,821,887 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.29 | $4,166,821,887 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.29 | $4,166,821,887 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.29 | $4,166,821,887 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.29 | $4,166,821,887 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.27 | $4,168,488,290 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.27 | $4,168,488,290 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.27 | $4,168,488,290 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.27 | $4,168,491,804 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.27 | $4,168,491,804 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.27 | $4,168,527,448 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.27 | $4,168,527,448 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.27 | $4,168,527,448 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.27 | $4,168,527,448 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.28 | $4,177,241,991 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.28 | $4,177,241,991 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.28 | $4,177,241,991 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.28 | $4,177,241,991 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.28 | $4,177,241,991 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.28 | $4,177,241,991 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.29 | $4,169,789,367 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.29 | $4,169,809,935 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.29 | $4,169,809,935 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.29 | $4,169,809,935 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.29 | $4,169,809,935 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.29 | $4,169,809,935 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.29 | $4,169,809,935 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.29 | $4,169,809,935 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.29 | $4,169,809,935 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.29 | $4,169,809,935 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.29 | $4,169,809,935 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.29 | $4,169,809,935 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.29 | $4,169,809,935 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.29 | $4,176,515,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.29 | $4,176,515,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.29 | $4,176,515,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.29 | $4,176,513,681 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.29 | $4,176,513,681 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.29 | $4,176,515,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.29 | $4,176,515,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.29 | $4,176,515,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.28 | $4,176,515,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.28 | $4,176,515,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.28 | $4,176,515,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.28 | $4,176,515,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.28 | $4,176,515,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.28 | $4,176,515,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.25 | $4,152,923,375 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.26 | $4,152,925,346 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.25 | $4,152,926,228 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.25 | $4,152,926,228 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.25 | $4,152,926,228 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.25 | $4,139,443,875 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.24 | $4,134,399,464 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.24 | $4,134,399,464 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.24 | $4,134,399,464 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.24 | $4,134,399,464 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.24 | $4,134,399,464 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.24 | $4,134,399,464 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.24 | $4,134,399,464 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.24 | $4,134,379,661 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.24 | $4,134,379,661 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.24 | $4,134,379,661 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.24 | $4,134,379,661 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.24 | $4,134,379,661 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.24 | $4,134,379,661 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.24 | $4,134,379,661 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.24 | $4,135,156,629 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.24 | $4,135,156,629 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.24 | $4,135,156,629 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.24 | $4,135,156,629 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.24 | $4,135,156,629 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.24 | $4,135,156,629 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.24 | $4,135,156,629 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.24 | $4,144,750,865 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.24 | $4,144,750,865 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.24 | $4,144,750,865 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.24 | $4,144,750,865 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.24 | $4,144,750,865 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.24 | $4,144,750,865 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.24 | $4,142,770,925 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.20 | $4,114,173,079 | 9 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.