BWX Technologies (BWXT)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$157.59-1.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BWXT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BWXT — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities The information set forth
Dated 2025-11-10
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities The information set forth under
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps with spending and growth plans. It shows financial strength.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q3 exceeds $100 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q3 falls below $80 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows ongoing improvements in operations. It also shows good cost management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is over $162 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 falls below $150 million.
Why it matters: This purchase is key for BWXT's growth in nuclear manufacturing.
Watch forQ3 results show positive effects from the PCG acquisition.
Also watch forNo significant impact from the PCG acquisition in Q3 results.
Why it matters: His experience in aerospace and defense may shape BWXT's strategy.
Watch forBoard decisions reflecting a focus on growth in aerospace and defense sectors.
Also watch forNo big changes in strategy or board decisions after the appointment is a concern.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$174 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $500 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,729 loss on $10,000 · 37.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows success and good cost control.
Supportive ifNet income in Q3 increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifNet income in Q3 grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good cost management and efficiency. It matches management's goal to raise net income.
Supportive ifNet income growth exceeds 20% year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income growth is below 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that BWXT is growing its core business. This helps management focus on making more money.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 18% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding growth and paying dividends. A drop below guidance indicates potential cash management issues.
Worry ifFree cash flow exceeds $360 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow drops below $345 million.