Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Boyd Gaming (BYD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$77.07-0.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.75 → 7.75 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BYD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase cash from operations | Cash from operations is strong, reaching $275.3M in 2025-Q4. | Under Pressure | Cash from operations falls below $134M in FY26 | Cash from operations: $202.603M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $275M cash from operations. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026202,603,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a consumer discretionary business with a multi-year thesis built around property enhancements, portfolio growth, and customer engagement. The thesis is intact, and recent results have been strong, but management execution and earnings quality remain mixed or neutral.
The valuation evidence describes BYD as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, meaning the snapshot does not flag an unusually vulnerable setup.
Near term, results have been strong, with earnings beats in July and October and recent gains in company quality and momentum. However, total revenue fell between the second and third quarters, Online revenue declined year over year, and the snapshot notes a pattern of recent misses across the company and its peers. Capital returns have continued, but delivery on property investment and customer growth remains mixed.
The near-term downside case is a guidance cut on the next call, which could lead analysts to lower estimates. The multi-year case depends on property and portfolio investment sustaining growth, while the Online segment and total revenue need monitoring. Consumer discretionary sector conditions are another swing factor, though the listed bellwethers are indirect signals rather than BYD-specific evidence.
Over the next one to three years, the long-term thesis remains intact, supported by strong recent results and a cheap peer-relative valuation, but mixed execution and guidance risk keep the evidence balanced. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Boyd Gaming's published investment case. The stated target is >= $166M operating income. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating income falls below $166M in FY26 |
Operating income: $194.902M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $166M operating income. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026194,902,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain consistent revenue growth | A primary condition in Boyd Gaming's published investment case. The stated target is >=2% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -1.38% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026-1.384562 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.82 → $7.75 · observed estimates
$4.24B → $4.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.82 | $4,236,559,760 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.74 | $4,207,670,700 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.74 | $4,207,670,700 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.73 | $4,197,659,820 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.73 | $4,197,659,820 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.73 | $4,197,659,820 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.73 | $4,197,659,820 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.74 | $4,191,676,391 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.73 | $4,197,659,820 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.76 | $4,193,434,310 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.76 | $4,193,434,310 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.76 | $4,193,434,310 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.76 | $4,193,434,310 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.76 | $4,193,434,310 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.74 | $4,191,676,391 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.74 | $4,191,676,391 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.76 | $4,193,434,310 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.74 | $4,191,676,391 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.74 | $4,191,676,391 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.74 | $4,191,676,391 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.74 | $4,191,676,391 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.74 | $4,191,676,391 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.74 | $4,191,676,391 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.74 | $4,191,676,391 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.74 | $4,191,676,391 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.74 | $4,191,676,391 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.74 | $4,191,676,391 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.74 | $4,190,989,921 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.74 | $4,190,810,588 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.74 | $4,190,810,588 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.74 | $4,190,810,588 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.74 | $4,190,810,588 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.74 | $4,190,810,588 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.74 | $4,190,810,588 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.74 | $4,190,810,588 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.74 | $4,190,810,588 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.74 | $4,190,810,588 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.74 | $4,190,810,588 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.74 | $4,190,810,588 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.74 | $4,190,810,588 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.75 | $4,191,376,667 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.75 | $4,191,376,667 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.75 | $4,191,376,667 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.75 | $4,191,376,667 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.75 | $4,191,376,667 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.75 | $4,191,376,667 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.75 | $4,191,376,667 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.75 | $4,191,391,743 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.75 | $4,191,561,114 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.75 | $4,191,561,114 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.75 | $4,191,561,114 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.75 | $4,191,561,114 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.76 | $4,191,822,225 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.73 | $4,186,469,781 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.73 | $4,186,469,781 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.73 | $4,186,469,781 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.85 | $4,186,469,781 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.85 | $4,186,469,781 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.78 | $4,186,747,873 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.78 | $4,182,154,873 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.78 | $4,182,154,873 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.78 | $4,182,154,873 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.78 | $4,182,154,873 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.78 | $4,182,154,873 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.78 | $4,182,154,873 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.79 | $4,181,039,332 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.75 | $4,175,088,737 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.75 | $4,175,088,737 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.74 | $4,166,554,056 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.77 | $4,153,481,704 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.77 | $4,153,481,704 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.76 | $4,150,819,259 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.76 | $4,150,819,259 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.71 | $4,150,819,259 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.71 | $4,150,819,259 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.71 | $4,150,819,259 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.71 | $4,150,819,259 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.71 | $4,150,819,259 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.71 | $4,150,819,259 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.75 | $4,149,158,310 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.75 | $4,149,158,310 | 10 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 16 recorded
1 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.