Pathward Financial, Inc. (CASH)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$83.19+0.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CASH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 11.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
CASH — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-20
Other Events. On August 20, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing declaration of a cash dividend for the fourth quarter of its fiscal year 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 as incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.05 per share for Q4.
Worry ifDividend is cut below $0.05 per share.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows effective expense management and supports growth plans. It is critical for financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow is higher than $232.9 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is lower than $232.9 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing. They will also show growth trends.
Watch forEarnings per share for Q3 2026 exceeds $3.35.
Also watch forEarnings per share for Q3 2026 falls below $3.00.
Why it matters: Consistent dividends show that a company is healthy. They also show care for shareholders.
Watch forA cash dividend of $0.05 per share declared for the next quarter.
Also watch forNo cash dividend declared for the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $269 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,221 loss on $10,000 · 22.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher tax services revenue shows strong demand. It also means the tax strategy is working.
Supportive ifTotal tax services product revenue was over $107.7 million.
Worry ifTotal tax services product revenue was below $107.7 million.
Why it matters: Tax services revenue growth is key to overall performance. A slowdown could signal issues in this segment.
Worry ifTax services revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifTax services revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow growth shows good expense management and strong operations.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow growth exceeds 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifOperating cash flow growth is below 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Exceeding this number would show strong demand and growth in the lending business.
Supportive ifNew loans were over $1.86 billion.
Worry ifNew loans were below $1.86 billion.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows credit problems. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $29 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income reported above $29 million.
Why it matters: Growth below this level may show less revenue from secondary markets.
Worry ifNoninterest income growth was below 4% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifNoninterest income growth was above 4% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Confirming this payment shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.05 per share confirmed on October 1, 2026.
Worry ifDividend payment not made on October 1, 2026.