Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
Cracker Barrel (CBRL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$67.92-3.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.25 → 2.31 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CBRL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA of $120 million to $125 million in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Cracker Barrel's published investment case. The stated target is $120M to $125M. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $120 million in fiscal 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 8, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a restaurant business with a recovery and execution thesis, rather than a steady, proven compounder. The thesis has turned mildly favorable after a recent earnings beat, but the overall status remains watch because results still trail the industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed: CBRL is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a 49% premium versus peers and is rated expensive overall. The model has low confidence, while its expectations gap is 0.37 and priced-in fragility is low, so the evidence does not show that the market has fully priced in weak execution or a turbulent setup.
Near-term execution has improved: fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeded the latest guidance, and capital spending was within guidance. Debt also declined after repayment of convertible notes, though progress on the broader sale-leaseback and debt-reduction priority is mixed; a CEO transition and material impairments remain concerns, and the recent beat has not erased the record of a deep miss.
Over the next several quarters, a key test is whether management sustains delivery and avoids reversing its recently raised guidance, which would damage credibility. Sector signals also matter: continued strong results and higher guidance from MCD, SBUX, and YUM would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
The 1-3 year view is cautiously improved, backed by better fiscal 2026 results but limited by elevated risk, expensive overall valuation, and performance below peers. The thesis depends on sustained execution and a supportive restaurant-sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| They also plan to keep capital spending near $110 million. |
| Intact |
| Capex exceeds $115 million or falls below $105 million in fiscal 2026 |
Capital expenditures: $25.246M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: $105M to $115M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 25, 202625,246,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $3.29 billion in fiscal 2026 | Management raised revenue guidance to about $3.29 billion for fiscal 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $3.27 billion in fiscal 2026 | Revenue: $849.342M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.29B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 25, 2026849,342,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.98 → $2.31 · observed estimates
$3.46B → $3.45B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | $1.98 | $3,456,493,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.98 | $3,456,493,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.91 | $3,458,406,490 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.91 | $3,458,406,490 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.01 | $3,458,992,416 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.01 | $3,458,992,416 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.29 | $3,451,563,845 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.25 | $3,451,563,845 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.25 | $3,451,563,845 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.25 | $3,451,563,845 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.25 | $3,451,563,845 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.25 | $3,451,563,845 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.25 | $3,451,563,845 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.25 | $3,451,563,845 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.25 | $3,451,563,845 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.25 | $3,451,563,845 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.31 | $3,452,668,364 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.