Cracker Barrel (CBRL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$54.69+1.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CBRL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 30 industry peers
CBRL — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-27
CEO — Julie Masino and David Deno: Julie Masino is stepping down as CEO, with David Deno succeeding her.
Why it matters: Better comparable store sales show more customers are coming back. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifRestaurant sales at comparable stores are better than last year. They improved from -2.6%.
Worry ifComparable store restaurant sales decline year over year worse than -2.6%.
Why it matters: This sale aims to make more money and focus on main operations. Its success is important.
Supportive ifThe sale was successful. This had a good impact on adjusted EBITDA.
Worry ifThere is a bad impact on adjusted EBITDA. There may be delays in the sale.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company values its shareholders and wants to stay stable.
Supportive ifThe company pays the declared dividend of $0.25 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the dividend payment.
Why it matters: This sale is expected to make more money. A successful exit shows focus on main operations.
Supportive ifThe last 16 MSBC locations have closed. There are related charges.
Worry ifDelays or problems in the sale process or unexpected costs come up.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$190 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $527 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,232 loss on $10,000 · 52.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This will show if the sales drop is a trend or a temporary issue. A consistent decline could signal deeper problems.
Worry ifComparable store restaurant sales decline more than 2.5% in Q4.
Less concerning ifComparable store restaurant sales increase or decline less than 2.5% in Q4.
Why it matters: If sales stabilize or improve, it shows recovery from recent drops. This would help revenue.
Supportive ifQ4 restaurant sales at comparable stores do not decline or grow compared to last year.
Worry ifQ4 restaurant sales at similar stores fall more compared to last year.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show ongoing problems with sales and customer visits. This could hurt future plans and investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 revenue declines more than 2.9% compared to the previous year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue declines less than 2.9% or shows growth compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: If Cracker Barrel has stable or growing revenue, it shows they are fixing sales drops. This is important for getting investor trust back.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue grows year over year or stabilizes above $797 million.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue declines year over year worse than -2.9%.
Why it matters: Lowering debt is key for financial health and growth.
Supportive ifTotal debt drops a lot after the sale-leaseback deal.
Worry ifTotal debt stays the same or goes up after the deal.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can affect strategy and execution. How the new CEO performs will be key for future growth.
Watch forLook for positive changes or revenue growth under David Deno's leadership in six months.
Also watch forWatch for falling sales or problems under David Deno's leadership.
Why it matters: Stable or growing sales show that customer traffic and spending are improving.
Watch forComparable store restaurant sales grow each year.
Also watch forComparable store restaurant sales drop each year.