Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Crown Holdings (CCK)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$121.86-2.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.03 → 9.09 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CCK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $8.1 in FY26 | A primary condition in Crown Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >= $8.1 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $7.7 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $2.08 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.1 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20262.08 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a materials-sector growth and cash-generation thesis, with recent performance showing strength but earnings quality still rated fragile. The long-term thesis is intact, while management execution is neutral and the evidence supports a mixed rather than fully proven picture.
CCK is valued cheaply versus peers, and the expectations gap is close to neutral. The evidence labels the current setup as justified, with low fragility rather than a valuation picture that depends on unusually strong execution.
Near term, beverage-can volumes have grown 5% in the first two supplied 2026 quarters and 6% in the third, while third-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings were above the year-earlier quarter. Management raised its 2026 adjusted free cash flow outlook, but delivery is not yet verified, and first-quarter operating cash flow was negative. A guidance cut remains a meaningful risk, even though the stated near-term miss risk is low.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on continued beverage-can volume growth and delivery of the earnings and free cash flow outlook. Sector bellwethers’ results are a swing factor: continued earnings strength and higher guidance would support the sector tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. The CEO transition adds a management change to monitor, though the evidence gives no further detail on its effect.
For a 1 to 3 year view, CCK’s strong recent results and growth priorities support an intact thesis, but fragile earnings quality and unverified cash flow delivery leave meaningful execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company generates strong free cash flow around $900M. |
| Under Pressure |
| Free cash flow falls below $800M in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $283M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $900M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026283,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income near $365M quarterly | A supporting condition in Crown Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >= $365M per quarter. | Under Pressure | Operating income falls below $350M quarterly | Operating income: $442M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $365M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 2026442,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to at least $13.25B in FY26 | A primary condition in Crown Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >= $13.25B. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $12.7B in FY26 | Revenue: $3.711B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $13.25B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20263,711,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.01 → $9.09 · observed estimates
$13.94B → $14.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.01 | $13,938,463,920 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.05 | $13,971,571,410 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.05 | $13,971,571,410 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.05 | $13,971,571,410 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.05 | $13,971,571,410 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.05 | $13,971,571,410 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.05 | $13,971,571,410 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.05 | $13,971,571,410 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.05 | $13,971,571,410 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.05 | $13,971,571,410 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-11 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.03 | $13,929,761,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.03 | $13,929,733,318 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.03 | $13,971,571,412 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.03 | $13,971,571,412 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.03 | $13,971,571,412 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.03 | $13,971,571,412 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.03 | $13,971,571,412 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.03 | $13,971,571,412 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.03 | $13,971,571,412 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.03 | $13,971,571,412 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.03 | $13,971,571,412 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.03 | $13,971,571,412 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.03 | $13,971,571,412 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.03 | $13,988,499,984 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.03 | $13,988,499,984 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.03 | $13,989,309,427 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.03 | $13,989,309,427 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.03 | $13,986,999,900 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.04 | $13,987,469,900 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.04 | $13,987,469,900 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.04 | $13,987,469,900 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.04 | $13,987,469,900 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.04 | $13,987,469,900 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.04 | $13,987,469,900 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.05 | $13,994,021,342 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.06 | $13,994,021,385 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.06 | $13,994,021,385 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.06 | $13,994,021,385 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.06 | $13,994,021,385 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.06 | $13,995,521,385 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.06 | $13,998,524,285 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.06 | $14,023,157,349 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.08 | $14,284,835,835 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.09 | $14,349,700,359 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.09 | $14,349,697,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.09 | $14,349,697,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.09 | $14,349,697,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.09 | $14,349,697,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.09 | $14,349,697,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.09 | $14,349,697,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.09 | $14,349,697,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.09 | $14,349,697,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.09 | $14,349,697,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.09 | $14,349,697,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.09 | $14,349,697,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.09 | $14,349,697,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.09 | $14,349,697,328 | 9 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.