Crown Holdings (CCK)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$121.86-2.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CCK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CCK — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-26
Director — Wayne T. Smith: The filing discloses the election of a new independent director to the board, which is a standard governance event and not an executive departure.
Why it matters: The new plant marks Crown's entry into India. An on-time start would show the company is turning its growth plan into added capacity.
Supportive ifCrown reports commercial start-up in Uttar Pradesh in the first quarter of 2028.
Worry ifCrown reports that the Uttar Pradesh plant start-up has moved past the first quarter of 2028.
Why it matters: Volume growth has driven recent results. A drop below the first-half pace could weaken Crown's sales and earnings gains.
Worry ifA reported quarter shows global beverage can volume growth below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifGlobal beverage can volume growth stays at or above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The sector data says revenue is shrinking, but recent signs point to a possible turn. Positive growth would support a firmer backdrop for Crown.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the materials sector turns positive.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth in the materials sector stays near -1% or falls further.
Why it matters: These projects are meant to add capacity for rising demand. Delays could leave Crown less able to serve customers.
Worry ifCrown reports that a Brazil, Greece, or Spain expansion has slipped from its planned schedule.
Less concerning ifCrown reports that all three projects remain on plan.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $237 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,047 loss on $10,000 · 20.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cash flow funds plant projects and shareholder returns. A shortfall would weaken the case that Crown can fund both.
Worry ifFY2026 adjusted free cash flow is below $950 million.
Less concerning ifFY2026 adjusted free cash flow is at least $950 million, as Crown guided.
Why it matters: Crown raised its forecast after strong results. Beating the new range would show earnings stayed on track despite higher input costs.
Supportive ifFY2026 adjusted EPS is above $8.45, the top of the October forecast.
Worry ifFY2026 adjusted EPS is below $8.35, the bottom of the October forecast.