Carnival (CCL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$26.66-3.09%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $26.66. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $27 CCL trades at 12× p/e, below its 34× p/e peer median. Our $38 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $30–$42. Not investment advice.
$30.00 – $42.00 (median $36.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $36.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $43.22 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $44.96 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $3.98 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $21.91 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $76.17 | 34.3 | 2.22 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $64.56 | 15.0 | 5.40 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $46.91 | 20.3 | 2.31 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $78.23 | 34.3 | 2.28 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $42.64 | 2.2 | 19.68 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $35.83 | 15.7 | 2.28 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $14.21 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $29.07 | 12.8 | 2.28 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $83.62 | 34.3 | 2.44 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $103.73 | 34.3 | 3.02 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $9.59 | 34.3 | 0.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $4.75 | 2.2 | 2.19 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $4.39 | 15.7 | 0.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $3.56 | 12.8 | 0.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $127.43 | 34.3 | 3.71 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.