Carnival (CCL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.51+0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CCL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
CCL — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-05-07
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. The information set forth in the Introductory Note and
Why it matters: Strong bookings for the future show steady demand. This means better pricing power in cruises.
Supportive ifBooking numbers for 2027 are much higher than last year.
Worry ifBooking numbers for 2027 are flat or lower than last year.
Why it matters: Success in PROPEL could drive long-term growth and shareholder returns through 2029.
Supportive ifManagement gives a detailed update on PROPEL's goals and successes. This shows progress.
Worry ifNo updates or negative comments on PROPEL's work. This suggests possible problems.
Why it matters: High customer deposits show strong demand. This is important for future cash flow.
Supportive ifCustomer deposits are above $9 billion in the next earnings report.
Worry ifCustomer deposits are below $9 billion in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Progress on PROPEL is important for growth and shareholder value. It shows management's focus.
Watch forManagement reports achieving over 50% EPS growth from 2025 as part of PROPEL.
Also watch forManagement says there are problems with meeting PROPEL targets or delays.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $439 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,133 loss on $10,000 · 31.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Progress on this program shows management wants to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says they have completed over $1 billion of the buyback.
Worry ifNo updates or progress reported on the share buyback program in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Net yields are key to profitability. Lower growth could signal demand weakness.
Worry ifQ3 2026 net yields growth reported below 1.3% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 net yields growth exceeds 1.3% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher costs can hurt profits. This affects cash flow.
Worry ifAdjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD reported above 2.8% year over year.
Less concerning ifAdjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD reported below 2.8% year over year.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how well the company is doing. It also shows cash flow.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, adjusted EBITDA was below $1.48 billion.
Less concerning ifIn Q3 2026, adjusted EBITDA was above $1.48 billion.