Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp
Carnival (CCL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.59-5.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.56 → 2.58 EPS · FY ending Nov 30, 2027 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CCL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of approximately $7.11 billion in 2026 | It aims for $7.11 billion adjusted EBITDA in 2026, showing strong earnings momentum. | Broken | adjusted EBITDA falls below $6.7 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Outlook For the full year 2026, the company expects: • Operational improvement of more than $150 million in adjusted net income compared to June guidance, driven by improvements in net yields, adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD and fuel consumption per ALBD, overcoming $150 million impact from increased fuel prices.” ““We remain on track to deliver solid yield growth, continued cost discipline and $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA 1 this year, underscoring the strength of demand across our portfolio, progress on our long-term strategy, and the advancements we have made positioning the business to perform across a range of environments.”” Revenue was $8.435 billion in 2026-Q3. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a recovery and growth thesis with strong recent financial performance, but the evidence still classifies earnings quality as loss-making and management execution as volatile. The multi-year view is intact, though the latest signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
CCL is assessed as cheap versus peers, and the valuation score has fallen recently. The expectations gap is modestly negative, while the priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, recent earnings beats and progress toward management’s 2026 adjusted EBITDA goal support continued strength, although the latest guidance and financial results remain important checks. Management reports buyback progress, while execution of its longer-term PROPEL goals remains under watch; industry miss risk and an earlier legal or listing-rule event add uncertainty.
The next call is a key swing factor: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative for the thesis. Over the multi-year view, execution on PROPEL and capital returns matters, while results and guidance from BKNG, ABNB, and RCL could signal whether the sector backdrop is helping or weakening.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on sustaining recent operating strength while proving longer-term execution, against elevated business and management risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain stable and effective management execution | A supporting condition in Carnival's published investment case. The stated target is management remains stable with no major governance issues. | Intact | major management turnover or governance failures occur | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near or above 5% annually | A primary condition in Carnival's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: 3.46% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Sep 29, 20263.45885 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Outlook For the full year 2026, the company expects: • Operational improvement of more than $150 million in adjusted net income compared to June guidance, driven by improvements in net yields, adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD and fuel consumption per ALBD, overcoming $150 million impact from increased fuel prices.” ““We remain on track to deliver solid yield growth, continued cost discipline and $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA 1 this year, underscoring the strength of demand across our portfolio, progress on our long-term strategy, and the advancements we have made positioning the business to perform across a range of environments.”” Revenue was $8.435 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Repurchase at least $2.5 billion of stock by end of 2026 | Management is executing a $2.5 billion share buyback program, returning cash to shareholders. | Intact | buybacks fall below $1.5 billion by end 2026 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““With nearly $1.2 billion of share repurchases so far this year, nearly $800 million since the beginning of the third quarter, and our ongoing dividend program, we are making meaningful progress toward our PROPEL target of distributing cash to our shareholders, responsibly.” “Share Buyback Program Today, the Boards of Directors approved an initial $2.5 billion share buyback program 1.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.63 → $2.58 · observed estimates
$28.62B → $28.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.63 | $28,622,453,150 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.64 | $28,615,893,150 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.64 | $28,615,893,150 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.64 | $28,615,893,150 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.64 | $28,615,893,150 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.64 | $28,615,893,150 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.64 | $28,615,893,150 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.64 | $28,597,680,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.64 | $28,597,800,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.64 | $28,597,800,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.64 | $28,597,800,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.64 | $28,597,800,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.64 | $28,597,800,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.64 | $28,597,800,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.64 | $28,597,800,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.64 | $28,597,800,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.64 | $28,597,800,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.64 | $28,597,800,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.64 | $28,597,800,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.64 | $28,597,800,986 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.62 | $28,616,064,790 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.62 | $28,604,480,790 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.62 | $28,604,480,790 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.62 | $28,604,480,790 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.61 | $28,587,542,870 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.61 | $28,587,542,870 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.61 | $28,587,542,870 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.61 | $28,582,502,870 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.61 | $28,582,502,870 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.59 | $28,556,302,870 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.59 | $28,556,302,870 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.59 | $28,556,302,870 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.59 | $28,556,302,870 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.59 | $28,556,302,870 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.59 | $28,556,302,870 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.56 | $28,603,646,676 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.57 | $28,603,055,943 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.57 | $28,603,055,943 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.56 | $28,607,805,382 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.56 | $28,607,805,382 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.56 | $28,607,805,382 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.56 | $28,584,449,095 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.56 | $28,584,449,095 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.56 | $28,584,449,095 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.56 | $28,584,449,095 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.57 | $28,583,857,790 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.57 | $28,583,857,790 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.57 | $28,583,857,790 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.57 | $28,583,838,134 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.58 | $28,602,011,545 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.58 | $28,607,272,917 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.58 | $28,607,272,917 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.58 | $28,607,272,917 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.58 | $28,607,272,917 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.58 | $28,607,272,917 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.58 | $28,607,272,917 | 18 / 20 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.