Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. (CCOI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.69-30.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CCOI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend payments at $0.02 per share | It keeps paying quarterly dividends at $0.02 per share. | Intact | dividend payment falls below $0.02 per share | Dividend per share: $0.02 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.02 per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 20260.02 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk telecom and network business with some growth from expanding optical wavelength services. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium and the evidence is mixed because operating losses persist beneath recent results.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to CCOI being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 34% premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests the market may be assuming more than the fundamentals support; model confidence is low, and the priced-in tag is justified with low fragility.
Near term, the recent earnings beat and improved operating results support the business picture, but the reported operating profit included a large gain from selling data centers, and operating losses persist without it. Management has expanded optical wavelength locations and maintained regular dividends, while cost control is partly on track; guidance cuts remain a meaningful risk, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued network expansion and better underlying operating results rather than gains from asset sales. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while Fed rate cuts or strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
For a 1 to 3 year view, CCOI’s recent performance keeps the long-term thesis intact, but persistent losses, elevated risk, and mixed valuation evidence make execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating loss improves toward $(11.3) million or better. |
| Improving |
| operating loss worsens beyond $(13.5) million |
Operating income: $118.943M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss improves toward $(11.3) million or better. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026118,943,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow optical wavelength revenue to at least $13.6 million | Cogent is growing its optical wavelength services by over 12% sequentially. | Intact | wavelength revenue falls below $12.1 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execute announced share buyback program starting June 2026 | The company started a share buyback program in June 2026. | Intact | buyback program not executed within 3 months | Buyback announced 2026-06-15 vs target by 2026-Q3 Event log confirms a 'buyback_announced' event on 2026-06-15, meeting the qualitative target for program initiation. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.95 → $-2.90 · observed estimates
$1.01B → $0.96B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.95 | $1,007,750,660 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.95 | $1,007,750,660 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.95 | $1,007,750,660 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.95 | $1,007,750,660 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.95 | $1,007,750,660 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.95 | $1,007,750,660 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.87 | $1,007,402,637 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.87 | $1,007,402,637 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.95 | $1,007,145,080 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.95 | $1,007,145,080 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.87 | $1,006,815,887 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.87 | $1,006,815,887 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.87 | $1,006,815,887 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.87 | $1,006,815,887 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.88 | $1,005,874,220 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.88 | $1,005,874,220 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.64 | $983,643,410 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.88 | $1,005,874,220 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-2.64 | $978,517,760 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.64 | $975,807,950 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.88 | $1,005,874,220 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.88 | $1,005,874,220 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.88 | $1,005,874,220 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.88 | $1,005,874,220 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.88 | $1,005,874,220 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.88 | $1,005,874,220 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.88 | $1,005,874,220 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.88 | $1,005,874,220 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.83 | $960,881,933 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.81 | $959,367,757 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.88 | $957,301,190 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.88 | $957,301,190 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.90 | $957,023,917 | 7 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.