Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. (CCOI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.69-30.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CCOI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -73.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
CCOI — officer change
Dated 2026-05-04
The filing describes a compensatory arrangement and an equity award, not a management change.
Why it matters: Revenue fell 4.6% year over year in Q1 and Q2. A smaller drop would show that the decline is easing.
Supportive ifQ3 service revenue is down less than 4.6% year over year, on a constant-currency basis.
Worry ifQ3 service revenue is down 4.6% or more year over year, on a constant-currency basis.
Why it matters: Net leverage fell to 6.23 in Q2 after debt buybacks. A rise would show that this progress has reversed.
Worry ifQ3 net leverage, adjusted for amounts due from T-Mobile, is above 6.23.
Less concerning ifQ3 net leverage, adjusted for amounts due from T-Mobile, is at or below 6.23.
Why it matters: Off-net revenue fell 17.3% in Q2, while on-net revenue grew. A smaller off-net drop would ease this drag.
Worry ifQ3 off-net revenue falls more than 17.3% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 off-net revenue falls less than 17.3% year over year, or grows.
Why it matters: Wavelength revenue grew 63.8% in Q2, and service locations rose to 1,137. Continued growth would show this offer is gaining ground.
Supportive ifQ3 wavelength revenue grows more than 50% year over year, and service locations rise above 1,137.
Worry ifQ3 wavelength revenue grows 50% or less year over year, or service locations stay at or below 1,137.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$344 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,033 loss on $10,000 · 10.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,518 loss on $10,000 · 85.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cogent has kept the dividend at $0.02 per share through Q2. A similar approval would continue that pattern.
Supportive ifThe board approves a quarterly dividend of at least $0.02 per share.
Worry ifThe board cuts the dividend below $0.02 per share or does not approve one.
Why it matters: Cash from operations fell from $14.8 million in Q1 to $3.2 million in Q2. Another negative quarter would deepen the cash pressure.
Worry ifQ3 cash from operations is below zero.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash from operations is at least $3.2 million.