Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. (CCOI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.05+0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CCOI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -61.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CCOI — officer change
Dated 2026-05-04
The filing describes a compensatory arrangement and an equity award, not a management change.
Why it matters: Operating income trends will show if Cogent is making more money. Negative trends may worry investors.
Worry ifOperating income rises to above -$10 million for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating income remains worse than -$13.5 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A better net leverage ratio shows stronger financial health. This could improve investor feelings.
Supportive ifNet leverage ratio gets better below 6.23.
Worry ifNet leverage ratio stays above 6.23 or worsens.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show revenue trends and how well the company is doing.
Watch forEarnings report shows a net profit or improved EBITDA margins.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a net loss or declining EBITDA margins.
Why it matters: The sale of 10 data center facilities for $225 million could improve cash flow. This transaction is key for Cogent's financial health.
Supportive ifThe deal will close by June 12, 2026. There will be no regulatory delays.
Worry ifThe sale is delayed beyond June 12, 2026, or fails to close.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$343 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $881 loss on $10,000 · 8.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,998 loss on $10,000 · 80.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A successful share buyback can improve earnings per share and investor confidence. It shows management's commitment to returning value.
Supportive ifStock prices go up after share buyback announcements.
Worry ifStock prices go down even with share buyback announcements.
Why it matters: Growth in this area shows success in expanding high-margin services.
Supportive ifWavelength revenue increases more than 12.3% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifWavelength revenue growth falls below 12.3% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The sale affects cash flow and focus. Good news could help financial stability.
Supportive ifThe sale has closed successfully. Cogent has received the cash.
Worry ifDelays or issues reported in the sale process that affect cash flow.
Why it matters: Customer connections are a key indicator of business health. A decline could signal loss of market share or service issues.
Worry ifTotal customer connections decrease by more than 2.4% from June 30, 2025.
Less concerning ifTotal customer connections go up or stay the same.
Why it matters: Closing this sale will impact cash flow and capital allocation. It may also affect future growth strategies.
Watch forThe sale of 10 data center facilities will close for $225 million as planned.
Also watch forThe sale is delayed or canceled. This affects cash flow expectations.
Why it matters: The sale might change cash flow and how the company operates. This can affect future results.
Watch forEarnings show better cash flow or lower operating costs after the sale.
Also watch forEarnings fall or there are problems after the sale.
Why it matters: The choice to keep or change the dividend shows how management views cash flow.
Watch forCogent announces a quarterly dividend for Q3 in 2026.
Also watch forCogent does not announce a dividend for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A larger decline would signal ongoing challenges in revenue growth. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 service revenue down more than 4.3% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 service revenue declines less than or stabilizes year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in wavelength services shows Cogent can innovate and meet market needs.
Supportive ifOptical wavelength services now reach more than 1,137 places.
Worry ifOptical wavelength services do not grow or shrink in locations.
Why it matters: This payment shows that management wants to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend of $0.02 per share is paid on September 4, 2026.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend payment is cut or stopped.
Why it matters: Changes in these payments could affect cash flow and overall financial health.
Watch forMonthly payments for the IP Transit Services Agreement are more than $33.3 million.
Also watch forMonthly payments for the IP Transit Services Agreement are less than $25 million.