Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Celanese (CE)
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$49.75-1.21%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.30 → 6.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities reaches at least $76M in Q1 2026 | Celanese aims to grow cash from operations to $76M in Q1 2026. | Under Pressure | cash from operating activities falls below $50M in 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations: $209M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=76000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026209,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical recovery thesis, tied to demand and conditions in the Materials sector, rather than a proven steady compounder. The signal has recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but the thesis remains under watch because performance is still below its industry cohort.
CE screens cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and labels the value picture loss-making. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting current expectations are not demanding, while the priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low.
Near term, growth in Engineered Materials and Acetyl Chain, footprint changes, and stronger cash generation show progress on management’s stated priorities. Operating income and free cash flow improved from the first to the second quarter of 2026, but cash-flow and deleveraging progress is mixed, and recent performance remains below the industry cohort. A guidance cut or continued misses would be a risk, despite a recent earnings beat and a low stated miss probability.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued delivery in the growth segments, cost savings, and cash generation. Sector bellwethers DOW, DD, and OLN are useful signals: continued earnings strength and higher guidance would support the Materials tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. CE’s next guidance update is another key swing factor.
For the 1-to-3-year view, improving execution and sector support are constructive, but elevated industry risk and below-cohort performance keep the thesis conditional. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS reaches $3.00 per share in full year 2026 |
| The company raised 2026 EPS guidance to $3.00 per share. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS guidance falls below $2.50 for full year 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $0.67 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 3.00 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 3, 20260.67 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income grows to at least $44M in Q1 2026 | Net income improved to $44M in Q1 2026. | Under Pressure | net income falls below $25M in 2026-Q1 | Net income: $74M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=44000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202674,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves to at least $214M in Q1 2026 | Operating income rose to $214M in Q1 2026. | Under Pressure | operating income falls below $150M in 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $198M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=214000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 2026198,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.42 → $6.24 · observed estimates
$10.09B → $10.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.42 | $10,094,100,970 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.42 | $10,094,100,970 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.42 | $10,094,100,970 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.42 | $10,094,100,970 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.42 | $10,094,100,970 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.42 | $10,094,100,970 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.59 | $10,045,232,784 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.42 | $10,094,100,970 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.42 | $10,094,100,970 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.42 | $10,094,100,970 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.59 | $10,045,232,784 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.59 | $10,045,232,784 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.59 | $10,045,232,784 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.59 | $10,045,232,784 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.34 | $9,943,847,678 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.17 | $9,972,360,060 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.17 | $9,972,360,060 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.34 | $9,943,847,678 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.34 | $9,943,847,678 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.34 | $9,943,847,678 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.34 | $9,943,847,678 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.34 | $9,943,847,678 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.34 | $9,943,847,678 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.34 | $9,943,847,678 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.34 | $9,943,847,678 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.34 | $9,943,847,678 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.34 | $9,943,847,678 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.31 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.31 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.31 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.31 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.31 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.31 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.31 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.31 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.31 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.29 | $10,035,792,670 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.28 | $10,014,139,825 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.28 | $10,014,139,825 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.28 | $10,014,139,825 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.28 | $10,014,139,825 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.28 | $10,014,139,825 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.28 | $10,014,139,825 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.28 | $10,014,139,825 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.28 | $10,014,139,825 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.32 | $10,014,139,825 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.32 | $10,014,139,825 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.32 | $10,014,139,825 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.32 | $10,017,573,159 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.32 | $10,017,573,159 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.32 | $10,017,573,159 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.32 | $10,017,573,159 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.32 | $10,017,573,159 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.32 | $10,017,573,159 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.31 | $10,012,927,969 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.31 | $10,012,927,969 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.30 | $10,011,869,561 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.30 | $10,011,869,561 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.30 | $10,011,869,561 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.30 | $10,011,869,561 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.30 | $10,011,869,561 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.29 | $10,013,202,894 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.29 | $10,013,202,894 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.29 | $10,013,202,894 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.29 | $10,013,202,894 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.29 | $10,013,202,894 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.29 | $10,013,202,894 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.29 | $10,013,202,894 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.29 | $10,013,202,894 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.20 | $9,988,069,561 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.20 | $9,988,069,561 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.20 | $9,988,069,561 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.20 | $9,988,069,561 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.20 | $9,988,036,227 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.20 | $9,988,036,227 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.20 | $9,988,036,227 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.18 | $10,002,612,240 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.19 | $10,002,478,907 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.19 | $10,002,478,907 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.19 | $10,002,478,907 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.19 | $10,002,478,907 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.19 | $10,002,478,907 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.19 | $10,002,478,907 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.19 | $10,002,478,907 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.19 | $10,002,478,907 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.19 | $10,002,478,907 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.19 | $10,002,478,907 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.19 | $10,002,478,907 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.19 | $10,002,478,907 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.19 | $10,005,272,240 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.24 | $10,016,418,214 | 10 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.