Celanese (CE)
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$49.75-1.21%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CE — officer change
Dated 2026-10-20
Director — Anne P. Noonan: The filing reports the routine appointment of a newly elected director to board committees, which is a standard administrative action with no executive departure.
Why it matters: Celanese guided to $1.35 to $1.75 for Q3. A result below that range would show a sharper drop than management described.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EPS is below $1.35.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EPS is $1.35 or higher.
Why it matters: The planned closure is part of savings actions worth over $50 million a year. A delay could push back those savings.
Worry ifCelanese confirms it closed the Lanaken facility by the end of Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifThe closure is delayed past Q3 2026, or the company reports the site is still running.
Why it matters: These markets helped offset weak auto demand in Q2. Continued growth would support Celanese's shift toward higher-value products.
Supportive ifMedical and electronics net sales both rise year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifMedical or electronics net sales fall from a year earlier in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Management kept its 2026 free cash flow goal at $700 million to $800 million. A shortfall would weaken its cash and debt-reduction plans.
Worry if2026 free cash flow is below $700 million.
Less concerning if2026 free cash flow is at least $700 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$165 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $483 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,769 loss on $10,000 · 37.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A new credit agreement amendment was filed on July 31. Any new limits or added debt costs could affect cash available for debt reduction.
Watch forA filing or company update shows lower borrowing costs or looser debt limits than before.
Also watch forA filing or company update shows higher borrowing costs, tighter debt limits, or new payment terms.