Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Frost Bank (CFR)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$156.68-1.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.87 → 12.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CFR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at or above $9.92 in 2025 | A primary condition in Frost Bank's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.92 USD per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $9.92 in 2025-Q4 | Diluted EPS: $2.84 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9.92 USD per share. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 20262.84 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CFR is a regional bank with a growth-led, durable-premium profile rather than a clear turnaround story. The long-term thesis is currently intact, though earnings quality is fragile and recent momentum has weakened.
CFR trades at a durable premium to peers, while the expectations gap is small and the pricing assessment is marked justified. The valuation model has low confidence, so the evidence on how much optimism is reflected is limited.
Over the multi-year view, loan and deposit growth and expanding customer numbers support the stated growth priorities. Near term, the latest earnings miss, a run of misses, and a sharp decline in company momentum point to execution risk; management’s repurchase pace also slowed in the latest quarter.
The thesis depends on consistent growth in deposits and loans and on stronger follow-through in customer expansion. Near term, another guidance cut or lower interest rates would weigh on the setup, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
The 1-3 year view remains intact, but the recent miss and fragile earnings quality make execution the key watch point. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit and net income improve with strong cost control. |
| Intact |
| Net income falls below $170.99 million in 2026-Q1 |
Net income: $180.209M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=170987000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 2026180,209,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 7% annually | A primary condition in Frost Bank's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 6.45% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20266.445665 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.10 → $12.15 · observed estimates
$2.51B → $2.60B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.10 | $2,511,851,040 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.10 | $2,511,851,040 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.10 | $2,511,851,040 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.10 | $2,511,851,040 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.10 | $2,511,851,040 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.10 | $2,511,851,040 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.14 | $2,527,229,148 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.38 | $2,543,608,210 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.24 | $2,521,293,210 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.56 | $2,538,637,480 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $11.72 | $2,539,803,190 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.57 | $2,544,667,374 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.70 | $2,550,815,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.70 | $2,550,815,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.70 | $2,550,815,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.70 | $2,550,815,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.70 | $2,550,815,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.70 | $2,550,815,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.70 | $2,550,815,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.70 | $2,550,815,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.70 | $2,550,815,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.70 | $2,550,815,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.70 | $2,550,815,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.70 | $2,550,815,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.70 | $2,550,815,210 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.71 | $2,553,360,665 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.71 | $2,553,360,665 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.71 | $2,553,360,665 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.71 | $2,553,236,938 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.71 | $2,553,236,938 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.71 | $2,553,236,938 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.71 | $2,553,236,938 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.81 | $2,561,882,737 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.81 | $2,561,882,737 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.81 | $2,561,882,737 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.81 | $2,561,882,737 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.81 | $2,561,882,737 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.81 | $2,561,882,737 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.81 | $2,561,882,737 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.81 | $2,561,882,737 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.81 | $2,561,882,737 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.81 | $2,561,882,737 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.81 | $2,561,882,737 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.81 | $2,561,882,737 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.81 | $2,561,882,737 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.87 | $2,568,174,879 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.88 | $2,569,751,516 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.88 | $2,569,751,516 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.89 | $2,570,477,107 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.89 | $2,570,477,107 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.89 | $2,570,477,107 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.89 | $2,570,477,107 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.89 | $2,571,262,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.89 | $2,571,262,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.89 | $2,571,262,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.87 | $2,572,353,833 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.87 | $2,572,353,833 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.87 | $2,572,353,833 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.87 | $2,572,353,833 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.89 | $2,571,899,287 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.91 | $2,571,899,287 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.95 | $2,571,899,287 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.98 | $2,571,890,196 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.98 | $2,571,890,196 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.00 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.00 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.00 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.00 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.05 | $2,573,462,924 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.09 | $2,583,234,184 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.16 | $2,590,048,792 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.14 | $2,590,049,456 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.14 | $2,590,049,456 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.15 | $2,597,961,977 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.15 | $2,597,961,977 | 11 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.