Frost Bank (CFR)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$162.62-0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth at or above 7% annually: Q2 FY26 rev +4.3% vs 7% target.
Frost Bank grows revenue about 7% a year. Earnings per share rise steadily, hitting $9.92 in 2025. Profit and net income improve with strong cost control. The bank trades at a reasonable 15 PE with low risk.
Revenue growth could slow below 7%. Rising costs or credit issues may pressure profits. Litigation risks and regional banking challenges could hurt results.
The price is about 4% above our fair value near $151. Analysts expect 7% revenue growth, which aligns with our view. Our fair value is close to the Street median, reflecting a justified valuation.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $9.92 in 2025-Q4
Breaks if: Net income falls below $170.99 million in 2026-Q1
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment thesis reflects a cautious view on a financial services company with a focus on balanced growth in loans and deposits. The current state is one of recovery, but the earnings quality remains fragile, suggesting a need for careful monitoring.
The market appears to be pricing in a low level of fragility, as the company's execution quality is weak but not overly expensive. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential volatility in earnings.
Management is on track to achieve solid growth in loans and deposits, as well as increasing earnings per share. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, though recent trends show a decline in earnings surprises.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support CFR's growth, but any negative guidance from them could adversely affect CFR.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports EPS growth and Texas expansion. This improvement in performance reinforces the positive outlook for the company.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, CFR's performance is improving, but it faces risks from both internal execution and external sector dynamics. Not investment advice.