Frost Bank (CFR)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$162.62-0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CFR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
CFR — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-17
Regulation FD Disclosure Cullen/Frost has posted an investor presentation dated as of June 30, 2026 on its website at https://investor.frostbank.com. A copy of the slide presentation is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1. This Current Report on Form 8-K (including the Exhibit hereto) includes forward looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended, an…
Why it matters: A decline in net interest margin could hurt profitability. It reflects changes in interest rates or loan pricing.
Worry ifNet interest margin is below 3.70%. This shows pressure on profits.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin is above 3.70%. This shows stable profits.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good management and high demand for banking services.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 exceeds $187 million, showing over 10% growth from Q2.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 is below $170 million. This means weaker performance.
Why it matters: Weak growth in non-interest income may mean fewer customer activities. This can lead to less money from fees.
Worry ifNon-interest income grew less than 5% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNon-interest income grew more than 5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher credit loss expense may mean worse credit quality and more risk.
Worry ifCredit loss expense is over $10 million. This shows possible loan performance issues.
Less concerning ifCredit loss expense is under $10 million. This suggests stable credit quality.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $200 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,136 loss on $10,000 · 11.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth might mean less demand. This can affect overall earnings.
Worry ifAverage loans growth reported below 5% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAverage loans growth reported above 5% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in deposits may mean customers are leaving. This affects cash flow and growth.
Worry ifAverage deposits decrease more than 2% compared to Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifAverage deposits go up or stay the same compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A steady or better net interest margin shows strong profits from lending.
Supportive ifNet interest margin reported above 3.70% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin reported below 3.60% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Frost Bank continues to grow revenue and net income. This is key for investors.
Supportive ifEarnings per share (EPS) beats expectations, showing continued growth.
Worry ifEPS is lower than expected. This shows a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows strong financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifA dividend increase for Q3 was announced. This shows confidence in earnings.
Worry ifNo dividend increase was announced for Q3. This may show caution about earnings.
Why it matters: Higher charge-offs may show worse credit quality. This could mean more stress for borrowers.
Worry ifNet charge-offs reported above $10 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs reported below $10 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may raise worries about capital strength and following rules.
Worry ifCommon Equity Tier 1 ratio reported below 13.5% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCommon Equity Tier 1 ratio reported at or above 13.5% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Consistent EPS growth supports management's priority to increase earnings. This reflects strong financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS growth is over 13% compared to last year. This shows management's growth plan is working.
Worry ifQ3 EPS growth is below 13%, indicating potential weakness in earnings.
Why it matters: Higher credit loss expenses may mean credit quality is getting worse. This raises the risk.
Worry ifCredit loss expense is over $10 million in Q3. This shows credit risk is rising.
Less concerning ifCredit loss expense is under $10 million in Q3. This shows credit quality is stable.