Church & Dwight (CHD)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$112.03+2.63%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 34.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CHD — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-29
Director — Jonathon J. Nudi: The filing announces the election of a new independent director to the board, which is a routine governance event and not a departure of an executive.
Why it matters: Management sees higher volume and productivity offsetting inflation and transport costs. Q4 margin will test that plan.
Supportive ifAdjusted gross margin grows by about 100 basis points or more for the full year, as management guides.
Worry ifFull-year adjusted gross margin growth is below 100 basis points.
Why it matters: THERABREATH helped drive domestic and international growth. Its new toothpaste and rinse launches are key tests of the innovation plan.
Supportive ifThe next company update names THERABREATH as a growth driver and reports continued share gains.
Worry ifThe next company update reports lower THERABREATH sales or lost share.
Why it matters: Cash flow supports brand spending and possible deals. Nine-month cash flow was $841 million, down 1.3% from last year.
Supportive ifCash from operations reaches about $1.175 billion in full-year 2026.
Worry ifFull-year cash from operations lands below $1.1 billion.
Why it matters: The company tightened its profit outlook after three strong quarters. Q4 results will show if sales and margin gains cover added costs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS grows by about 7% for the full year, in line with management's updated outlook.
Worry ifFull-year adjusted EPS growth falls below 6%, below the prior low end of guidance.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $209 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,409 loss on $10,000 · 14.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management raised its 2026 organic sales outlook to about 5%. Q4 results will test whether strong growth continues.
Supportive ifQ4 organic sales grow about 5% or more, with positive volume growth.
Worry ifQ4 organic sales growth falls below 4%, or volume turns negative.