Church & Dwight (CHD)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$98.94+1.53%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $98.94. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $99 the market pays 28× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 28× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $87 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $100–$114. Note: our $87 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($100–$114). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $108 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $110.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $94.81 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $94.72 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $37.53 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$100.00 – $114.00 (median $110.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.88/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $69.69 |
| 19.3 |
| 3.62 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $88.48 | 16.9 | 5.66 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $91.13 | 20.3 | 4.48 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $68.54 | 19.3 | 3.56 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $44.33 | 1.7 | 26.06 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $114.57 | 32.2 | 3.56 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $25.18 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $99.19 | 27.9 | 3.56 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $73.09 | 19.3 | 3.80 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $92.28 | 19.3 | 4.79 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $118.93 | 20.3 | 5.85 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $80.61 | 19.3 | 4.19 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $47.34 | 1.7 | 27.84 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $134.76 | 32.2 | 4.19 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $116.67 | 27.9 | 4.19 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $111.28 | 19.3 | 5.78 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $142.04 | 20.3 | 6.98 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $83.05 | 19.3 | 4.31 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $48.77 | 1.7 | 28.68 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $138.84 | 32.2 | 4.31 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $120.19 | 27.9 | 4.31 | Analyst | high |