Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Choice Hotels (CHH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$117.84-2.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.54 → 7.54 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CHH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain adjusted EBITDA near $632 million in 2026 | Profit stays solid with adjusted EBITDA guided near $632 million in 2026. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $600 million in FY 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CHH is a hotel-franchise growth business, with a multi-year thesis tied to expanding its global room network and franchise agreements. The thesis is on watch: management priorities are progressing, but recent financial performance has trailed its industry cohort and the overall signal has shifted to mixed.
The valuation evidence is mixed: CHH is described as cheap versus peers, yet its valuation is also tagged as stretched, with a reported premium versus peers. The expectations gap is 0.23, but the snapshot does not explain what that figure means in practical terms. Fragility is rated low because weak execution is not accompanied by the full set of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.
Near term, results remain exposed to execution risk, especially after guidance was lowered as of August 5 and recent performance trailed the industry cohort. Against that, room growth and franchise agreements improved in the second quarter, while operating income and adjusted EBITDA also increased. Management execution is rated neutral, and a CEO transition and an officer change add context without a stated direction for results.
A favorable shift would require guidance to recover next quarter, alongside continued progress in global room growth and franchise agreements. Sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength from MAR, HLT, and IHG could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it. The available evidence does not specify the terms or expected effects of the announced material agreement.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CHH’s multi-year view depends on sustained franchise expansion and operating progress overcoming recent execution concerns. The evidence is mixed, with moderate risk and medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company returns capital steadily, paying $13 million in dividends quarterly. |
| Intact |
| Quarterly capital return falls below $60 million or dividends below $10 million |
Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow global net rooms and franchise agreements | Choice Hotels grows global rooms by 1.7% yearly and boosts franchise deals 72%. | Intact | Global net rooms growth falls below 1.7% YoY or franchise agreements growth falls below 50% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage CEO transition and maintain strategic momentum | A supporting condition in Choice Hotels's published investment case. The stated target is Successful CEO transition with no disruption to strategic execution through 2026. | Intact | CEO transition leads to missed guidance or strategic delays | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.61 → $7.54 · observed estimates
$1.67B → $1.69B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.61 | $1,674,335,330 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.61 | $1,674,335,330 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.61 | $1,674,335,330 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.61 | $1,674,335,330 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.61 | $1,674,335,330 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.61 | $1,674,335,330 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.61 | $1,674,335,330 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.60 | $1,662,971,697 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.61 | $1,674,335,330 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.61 | $1,674,335,330 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.60 | $1,662,971,697 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.61 | $1,674,335,330 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.60 | $1,662,971,697 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.61 | $1,674,335,330 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.47 | $1,665,778,809 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.48 | $1,677,372,560 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.47 | $1,665,778,809 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.48 | $1,677,372,560 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.47 | $1,665,778,809 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.47 | $1,676,283,790 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.47 | $1,665,778,809 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.47 | $1,665,778,809 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.47 | $1,665,778,809 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.47 | $1,665,778,809 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.47 | $1,665,778,809 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.47 | $1,665,778,809 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.47 | $1,665,778,809 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.44 | $1,666,959,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.44 | $1,666,959,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.44 | $1,666,959,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.44 | $1,666,959,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.44 | $1,666,959,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.44 | $1,666,959,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.44 | $1,666,959,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.44 | $1,666,959,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.44 | $1,666,959,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.48 | $1,668,263,213 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.48 | $1,668,263,213 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.48 | $1,668,263,213 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.48 | $1,668,263,213 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.48 | $1,668,263,213 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.48 | $1,668,263,213 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.48 | $1,668,263,213 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.48 | $1,668,263,213 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.48 | $1,668,263,213 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.48 | $1,668,263,213 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.48 | $1,668,263,213 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.48 | $1,668,263,213 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.48 | $1,668,263,213 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.50 | $1,668,346,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.54 | $1,666,997,505 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.54 | $1,666,997,505 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.54 | $1,666,997,505 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.54 | $1,666,997,505 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.54 | $1,666,997,505 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.54 | $1,670,743,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.54 | $1,670,743,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.54 | $1,670,743,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.54 | $1,670,743,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.54 | $1,670,743,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.54 | $1,670,743,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.54 | $1,670,743,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.53 | $1,670,743,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.53 | $1,670,743,414 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.49 | $1,670,598,274 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.49 | $1,670,598,274 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.49 | $1,670,598,274 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.49 | $1,671,001,043 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.49 | $1,671,001,043 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.49 | $1,671,156,889 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.49 | $1,671,011,624 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.49 | $1,671,956,670 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.49 | $1,671,956,670 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.49 | $1,671,956,670 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.49 | $1,671,956,670 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.49 | $1,671,956,670 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.49 | $1,671,956,670 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.50 | $1,671,956,670 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.50 | $1,671,956,670 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.50 | $1,671,956,670 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.50 | $1,671,956,670 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.50 | $1,671,956,670 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.50 | $1,671,956,670 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.48 | $1,681,667,456 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.54 | $1,692,417,410 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-05 | $7.54 | $1,692,417,410 | 11 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 6 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.