Choice Hotels (CHH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$100.62+1.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
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Put CHH beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain adjusted EBITDA near $632 million in 2026: FY26 EBITDA guidance $97M vs $632M target.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 3% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 17% growth a year, above the roughly 2% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskChoice Hotels International's growth relies on maintaining adjusted EBITDA near $632 million in 2026. Recent earnings beat expectations, with Q2 revenue growing 3% year over year. The stock trades at 15× P/E, below the peer median of 19×, indicating that the market prices in more growth than forecasted. The primary risk is the pressure on maintaining EBITDA guidance, with a 22% probability of missing outlook. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% below where it trades. Our read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. CHH is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 17 analysts currently covering CHH (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 7 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for CHH in the last 4 months.
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Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put CHH next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Transition leadership and maintain strategic momentum
CEO confirmation supports leadership transition and strategic momentum.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $100.62
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $100.62.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Transition leadership and maintain strategic momentum
New CEO may enhance strategic momentum and leadership.
Advances: Drive global net rooms growth and franchise agreements
Increased RevPAR and growth outlook support net rooms growth objective.
Advances: Drive global net rooms growth and franchise agreements
Increased EBITDA outlook supports growth and franchise agreements.
Advances: Maintain and grow operating income and adjusted EBITDA
Earnings call provides insights on operating income and EBITDA.
Advances: Maintain and grow operating income and adjusted EBITDA
Q2 sales beat supports operating income and EBITDA growth.
Advances: Transition leadership and maintain strategic momentum
AI leader enhances strategic momentum and innovation.
CEO selling shares raises concerns about leadership stability.