Choice Hotels (CHH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$100.62+1.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CHH — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-31
CEO — Patrick S. Pacious: The former CEO resigned in connection with his pre-arranged transition to an advisor role and the appointment of a named internal successor (Interim CEO) as the new President and CEO.
Why it matters: Stabilizing royalty rates indicate franchisee health and can support revenue growth. It reflects the company's pricing power.
Supportive ifU.S. royalty rate growth stabilizes at mid-single digits or higher.
Worry ifU.S. royalty rate growth declines below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Growth in RevPAR shows demand is recovering and prices are rising in hotels.
Supportive ifGlobal RevPAR growth turns positive year over year in Q3.
Worry ifGlobal RevPAR growth remains negative year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: The new CEO will shape the company's future direction after the recent leadership change. Investors will want to see if the new leader can maintain growth momentum.
Supportive ifA new permanent CEO has been announced. This person has a strong history in hospitality.
Worry ifNo permanent CEO is appointed by the end of Q3 2026, leading to uncertainty in leadership.
Why it matters: Revenue fell in Q1 2026. Any growth in Q2 would show the business is recovering.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 total revenue growth turns positive compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 total revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: RevPAR growth shows pricing power and demand in the hotel industry.
Supportive ifU.S. RevPAR growth exceeds 1.3% in Q3 2026 compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifU.S. RevPAR growth falls below 0% in Q3 2026 compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Updates on the CEO search show how well the company manages leadership transitions. A smooth process can maintain investor confidence.
Watch forThe company will name a preferred CEO candidate in three months.
Also watch forThe CEO search process is delayed beyond three months without updates.
Why it matters: Growth in room numbers is important for franchise and company growth.
Supportive ifGlobal net rooms growth exceeds 1.7% in the next quarter.
Worry ifGlobal net rooms growth is below 1.7% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Stable net income is key for investor trust and shows good operations.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $64 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 falls below $50 million.
Why it matters: Changes in EBITDA guidance show how well the company is doing and its profit outlook.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA guidance raised to over $650 million for the full year 2026.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now below $635 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Higher net rooms growth shows that Choice Hotels is effectively expanding its franchise system. This supports future revenue growth.
Supportive ifU.S. net rooms growth exceeds 2.6% in the next quarter.
Worry ifU.S. net rooms growth stays below 2.6% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A rise in adjusted EBITDA shows better efficiency and profit. This can help investors feel good.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA exceeds $175 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $175 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More franchise agreements signal strong demand and growth potential for Choice Hotels. This can lead to higher revenue.
Supportive ifGlobal franchise agreements awarded increase beyond 20% in the next quarter.
Worry ifGlobal franchise agreements awarded increase less than 20% in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$155 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $388 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,756 loss on $10,000 · 27.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.