Choice Hotels (CHH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$117.84-2.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 30.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CHH — officer change
Dated 2026-10-01
CHRO — Patrick Cimerola: The Chief Human Resources Officer is transitioning out of his role in an agreed-upon, orderly manner with a defined transition period and severance terms.
Why it matters: Global net rooms growth rose from 1.7% in Q1 to 2.6% in Q2. Further growth would support Choice's expansion goal.
Supportive ifA later 2026 update reports global net rooms growth above 1.5% year over year.
Worry ifA later 2026 update reports global net rooms growth below 1.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Choice cut its net income range in Q2, citing higher costs, interest expense, and taxes. Another cut would deepen that pressure.
Worry ifChoice lowers its 2026 net income range below $230 million to $241 million.
Less concerning ifChoice keeps or raises its 2026 net income range of $230 million to $241 million.
Why it matters: Choice raised its 2026 U.S. RevPAR range to 0%–1.25%. Growth above that range would extend the Q2 improvement.
Supportive ifIn the Q3 results, U.S. RevPAR growth is above 1.25% year over year.
Worry ifIn the Q3 results, U.S. RevPAR growth is below 0% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$122 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $372 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,092 loss on $10,000 · 20.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.