Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Chord Energy (CHRD)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$132.45+0.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
15.64 → 19.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CHRD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex between $1.35 billion and $1.45 billion in FY26 | Revenue guidance for 2026 is between $1.355 billion and $1.445 billion next quarter. | Intact | Capex exceeds $1.6 billion in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $404.218M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 1350-1450 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026404,218,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an energy-sector company with a multi-year thesis tied to operating performance, disciplined spending, and shareholder returns. The thesis is intact, though its signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed after a recent earnings miss and CEO transition.
The evidence describes CHRD as cheap versus peers, while the overall valuation assessment is neutral and model confidence is medium. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and the priced-in assessment says expectations are justified with low fragility, despite a turbulent sector backdrop.
Recent financial performance is strong and remains in the top half of the industry, while management has reported substantial capital returns and progress on four-mile drilling. The FY26 capital-spending commitment remains near its stated midpoint, though the priority is marked behind. Near term, a 31% estimated miss probability is described as low risk, but consecutive earnings misses and peer weakness warrant attention.
For the multi-year view, execution on capital discipline, shareholder returns, and the four-mile drilling program remains important. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could sustain the sector tailwind. Misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken that support.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, but the recent move to a mixed signal and the earnings and leadership developments leave execution and sector conditions as important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Chord Energy beat Q1 earnings with EPS of $4.56, 31% above estimates. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $16 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow at least $1.4 billion in FY26 | The company targets free cash flow of at least $1.4 billion in 2026. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $711.936M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1400 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026711,936,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue between $1.355 billion and $1.445 billion in Q2 2026 | Revenue guidance for 2026 is between $1.355 billion and $1.445 billion next quarter. | Intact | Quarterly revenue falls below $1.2 billion in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $1.706B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1355 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 5, 20261,705,901,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$14.67 → $19.27 · observed estimates
$5.28B → $5.87B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $14.67 | $5,277,438,530 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $14.67 | $5,277,438,530 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $14.67 | $5,277,438,530 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $14.67 | $5,277,438,530 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $14.67 | $5,277,438,530 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $14.73 | $5,277,438,530 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.87 | $5,248,993,744 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $14.73 | $5,277,438,530 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $14.73 | $5,277,438,530 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $14.73 | $5,277,438,530 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.87 | $5,248,993,744 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.87 | $5,248,993,744 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.87 | $5,248,993,744 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.87 | $5,248,993,744 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.58 | $5,215,357,381 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.58 | $5,215,357,381 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.58 | $5,215,357,381 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.58 | $5,215,357,381 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $13.58 | $5,215,357,381 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.58 | $5,215,357,381 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.58 | $5,215,357,381 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.58 | $5,215,357,381 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.58 | $5,215,357,381 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.58 | $5,215,357,381 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.58 | $5,215,357,381 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.58 | $5,215,357,381 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.58 | $5,215,357,381 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.18 | $5,479,177,475 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.29 | $5,516,586,079 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.44 | $5,534,586,079 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.44 | $5,534,586,079 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.44 | $5,534,586,079 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.50 | $5,598,313,352 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.50 | $5,598,313,352 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.50 | $5,598,313,352 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.50 | $5,598,313,352 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.50 | $5,598,313,352 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.50 | $5,598,313,352 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.50 | $5,598,313,352 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.50 | $5,598,313,352 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.50 | $5,598,313,352 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.50 | $5,598,313,352 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.78 | $5,519,245,572 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.78 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.78 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.78 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.94 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.94 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.94 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.02 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.02 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.02 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.02 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.30 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.29 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.29 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.29 | $5,519,245,572 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.86 | $5,491,678,906 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.97 | $5,594,011,297 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.97 | $5,594,011,297 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $15.02 | $5,573,413,631 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $15.02 | $5,573,413,631 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $15.24 | $5,573,413,631 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $15.37 | $5,573,413,631 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $15.37 | $5,573,413,631 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $15.37 | $5,573,413,631 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $15.37 | $5,573,413,631 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $15.37 | $5,573,413,631 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $15.37 | $5,573,413,631 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $15.33 | $5,545,005,938 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $15.33 | $5,545,005,938 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $15.34 | $5,542,882,861 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $15.58 | $5,542,882,861 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $15.58 | $5,542,882,861 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $15.64 | $5,548,790,554 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $15.89 | $5,565,312,369 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $15.86 | $5,565,312,369 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $15.86 | $5,554,051,150 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $15.86 | $5,554,051,150 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.32 | $5,554,051,150 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.32 | $5,554,051,150 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.75 | $5,554,051,150 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.75 | $5,554,051,150 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.71 | $5,551,589,611 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $17.93 | $5,571,753,832 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $17.93 | $5,571,753,832 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $18.23 | $5,571,748,753 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $18.23 | $5,571,748,753 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $18.55 | $5,571,748,753 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $19.08 | $5,845,907,107 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $19.07 | $5,845,907,107 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $19.00 | $5,845,684,599 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $19.26 | $5,873,177,932 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $19.26 | $5,873,177,932 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $19.26 | $5,873,177,932 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $19.26 | $5,873,177,932 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $19.27 | $5,873,182,674 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $19.27 | $5,873,182,674 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $19.27 | $5,873,182,674 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $19.27 | $5,873,182,674 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $19.27 | $5,873,182,672 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $19.27 | $5,873,182,672 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $19.27 | $5,873,182,674 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $19.27 | $5,873,182,672 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $19.27 | $5,873,182,672 | 11 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
4 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.