Chord Energy (CHRD)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$146.39-1.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHRD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -9.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CHRD — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-08-06
Executive Vice President, Chief Administrative Officer, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary — Shannon Kinney: Ms. Kinney resigned to pursue an opportunity as the General Counsel of ConocoPhillips.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect how a company runs. Stability helps keep investors confident.
Worry ifThey announced a new General Counsel with the right experience.
Less concerning ifNo announcement or a bad appointment can be a negative sign.
Why it matters: An increase means stronger cash flow and more money for shareholders. This shows good efficiency and market conditions.
Supportive ifAdjusted Free Cash Flow guidance raised above $1.3B for FY26.
Worry ifAdjusted Free Cash Flow guidance remains at or below $1.3B for FY26.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps keep operations running and supports returns to shareholders.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $500MM in 2Q26.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $450MM in 2Q26.
Why it matters: Changes in spending can show shifts in strategy. This affects cash flow.
Watch forCapEx guidance stays at $1.4B. This shows careful capital management.
Also watch forCapEx guidance is raised a lot. This suggests more spending and possible operational issues.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $387 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,523 loss on $10,000 · 25.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This shows strong operational performance. It also shows progress towards the $3.1B FY26 target.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA reported at or above $800M.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA was below $700M.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show strong operations and good financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was at or above $3.1B for FY26. This shows strong operations.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $2.8B for FY26. This suggests weak operations.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows good financial health and strong operations.
Supportive ifChord reports Adjusted EBITDA of $3.1B for FY26.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $2.8B for FY26.
Why it matters: Falling oil volumes may show problems in production or efficiency. This could hurt cash flow and returns for shareholders.
Worry if3Q26 oil volumes reported below 161.5 MBopd.
Less concerning if3Q26 oil volumes reported at or above 161.5 MBopd.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good operations. It helps free cash flow grow.
Supportive ifQ3 oil volumes reported at or above 163 MBopd.
Worry ifQ3 oil volumes fall below 161 MBopd.
Why it matters: Staying under this level shows management is careful with spending.
Supportive ifQ3 CapEx reported below $390MM.
Worry ifQ3 CapEx reported above $390MM.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows strong cash flow. It also benefits shareholders.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted Free Cash Flow reported at or above $1.3B.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted Free Cash Flow reported below $1.2B.
Why it matters: Progress on this program can boost production. It can also cut costs.
Watch forManagement reports good news about successful TILs. This is for more 4-mile lateral wells.
Also watch forNo new updates or delays in the 4-mile lateral drilling program.