Chord Energy (CHRD)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$132.45+0.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHRD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -35.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CHRD — CEO transition
Dated 2026-11-02
CEO — Mr. Lou: The filing details compensation changes associated with Mr. Lou's appointment as President & CEO, indicating an internal promotion or role expansion rather than a departure.
Why it matters: Michael Lou took over as CEO in October. The next results will show whether the team keeps its output and spending plans.
Watch forUnder Michael Lou, Chord keeps FY26 CapEx within $1.36–$1.44 billion and oil output within 160,200–161,800 barrels per day.
Also watch forChord cuts its FY26 oil output or CapEx guidance after the CEO change.
Why it matters: Chord plans to use more 4-mile wells. Cost control and early well results test whether this program is working.
Supportive ifChord reports more 4-mile pads completed, costs in line with its plan, and early well results in line with expectations.
Worry ifChord reports 4-mile well costs above plan or early results below expectations.
Why it matters: Chord guided to lower Q4 oil output after moving some work into earlier quarters. A larger drop may weaken cash generation.
Worry ifQ4 oil output falls below 156,000 barrels per day, the low end of Chord's guidance.
Less concerning ifQ4 oil output lands within or above the 156,000–159,000 barrels per day guidance range.
Why it matters: The sale would bring cash to Chord and support its plan to strengthen the balance sheet.
Supportive ifChord reports the Marcellus sale closed and it received the rest of the sale proceeds. Total gross consideration reached $550 million.
Worry ifChord reports that the sale did not close, was delayed, or had lower proceeds than $550 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $406 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,523 loss on $10,000 · 25.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management said returns would rise as debt fell. The October update lists repurchases but not the full return share.
Watch forFinal Q3 results show total shareholder returns at or above 75% of adjusted free cash flow.
Also watch forFinal Q3 results show total shareholder returns were less than 75% of adjusted free cash flow.