C.H. Robinson (CHRW)
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$147.64+0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHRW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CHRW — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-24
Regulation FD Disclosure. On July 23, 2026, a jury in Dallas County, Texas issued an advisory verdict against C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (the “Company”) and two other defendants in a lawsuit related to a trucking accident involving an independent motor carrier. The verdict awarded compensatory damages of $604 million, which could be assessed against the Company. The advisory verdict remains subject to post-trial proceedings before the court enters a final verdict. The Company disagrees wit…
Why it matters: The court case outcome could affect financial health and how investors feel. A bad result may mean high costs.
Worry ifFinal verdict reduces the financial impact to less than $100 million.
Less concerning ifThe final verdict shows the $604 million debt for the company.
Why it matters: Continued revenue growth in North American Surface Transportation shows market share gains. This is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifNAST revenue growth above 2.8% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNAST revenue growth below 0% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Success in Lean AI can increase productivity and lower costs. This helps overall performance.
Supportive ifManagement says Lean AI will bring clear productivity gains in the next quarters.
Worry ifNo productivity gains linked to Lean AI are reported for the next quarters.
Why it matters: High cash returns signal strong financial health and commitment to shareholders. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifCash returned to shareholders exceeds $300 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash returned to shareholders drops below $300 million in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $343 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,237 loss on $10,000 · 32.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in the effective tax rate can impact net income and overall financial health.
Watch forEffective tax rate is below 12%. This shows good tax management.
Also watch forEffective tax rate is over 15%. This suggests possible tax challenges.
Why it matters: Sustaining volume growth is key to maintaining market share. A decline could signal weakness.
Worry ifQ3 NAST volume growth below 1.5% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 NAST volume growth above 1.5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Changes in the effective tax rate can affect net income and overall profit.
Watch forEffective tax rate drops below 11% in the next quarter.
Also watch forEffective tax rate rises above 20% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Staying within this capex range shows good financial management and helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending will be between $65 million and $85 million in the next quarters.
Worry ifCapital spending will go above $85 million or below $65 million.
Why it matters: A drop in cash generation may show problems in operations. Stability or growth is key.
Supportive ifCash from operations rises above $68.6 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $68.6 million.
Why it matters: Sustained outperformance in NAST volume growth signals strong market share gains. This is key to C.H. Robinson's growth strategy.
Supportive ifNAST volume growth exceeds the Cass Freight Shipment Index decline by more than 1.5% year-over-year.
Worry ifNAST volume growth falls below the Cass Freight Shipment Index decline.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted EPS shows good cost management and efficiency. It shows the Lean AI strategy is working.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS growth above 10% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth below 0% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Continued success in Lean AI could enhance margins and market share, supporting long-term growth.
Supportive ifProductivity in NAST and Global Forwarding will be over 60% next quarter. This is an increase from last year.
Worry ifProductivity in NAST and Global Forwarding will drop below 60% next quarter. This is a decrease from last year.
Why it matters: A strong operating margin shows good cost control and profit. This is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifNAST adjusted operating margin stays above 30% in the next quarter.
Worry ifNAST adjusted operating margin falls below 30% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The $604 million advisory verdict could change C.H. Robinson's finances and how investors feel.
Worry ifC.H. Robinson's financial reports show no big rise in debts from the lawsuit.
Less concerning ifC.H. Robinson reports a big rise in debts or a drop in cash due to the lawsuit.
Why it matters: Keeping the tax rate within guidance helps earnings stay stable. It shows good tax management.
Supportive ifThe effective tax rate was within the 18%-20% range for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifThe effective tax rate was outside the 18%-20% range for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Cash generation is key for funding growth and returning value to shareholders. It reflects operational health.
Supportive ifCash from operations rises above $100 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $50 million in Q2 2026.