Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Chime Financial Inc (CHYM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$30.18+1.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.93 → 0.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CHYM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sustain positive earnings per share growth | A primary condition in Chime Financial Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.33 in FY26. | Improving | EPS falls below $0.25 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.11 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.33 in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 20260.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CHYM is a growth-oriented financial technology business, with a thesis tied to expanding membership and revenue while sustaining profitability. The multi-year view is intact, though the signal recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and risk remains elevated.
Valuation is marked as justified, with no signs of concentrated fragility, and it is about 17% above peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be somewhat ahead of the evidence; confidence in that assessment is medium.
Near term, revenue growth accelerated from 25% to 27% year over year between the first and second quarters of 2026, while GAAP net income remained positive for two consecutive quarters. Active Members rose 20% and ARPAM grew 6% in the second quarter, supporting management’s stated growth and profitability priorities. Risks include erratic earnings surprises, recent peer misses, and the possibility of a guidance cut, although the stated miss risk is low.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue and member growth alongside sustained profitability, and on execution of the announced acquisition and share repurchase authorization. A guidance cut would weaken the setup. Fed rate cuts or stabilization among major technology peers could improve the sector backdrop, but neither is assured by the evidence.
For a 1 to 3 year view, growth and profitability support an intact long-term thesis, while the premium to peers, elevated risk, and mixed signal call for attention to execution and guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Chime Financial Inc's published investment case. The stated target is 22% to 23% YoY revenue growth. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 20% in FY26 |
Revenue growth: 32.1% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 22% to 23% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 202632.102282 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Implement $200 million share repurchase program | It has announced a $200 million share buyback program. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Share Repurchase Authorization As we completed our prior share repurchase authorization, our Board of Directors has approved an additional $200 million share repurchase, demonstrating management and the Board's continued confidence in Chime’s financial strength and future potential.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.76 → $0.96 · observed estimates
$3.20B → $3.38B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.76 | $3,200,951,560 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.75 | $3,200,449,990 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.75 | $3,200,449,990 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.75 | $3,200,449,990 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.75 | $3,200,449,990 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.75 | $3,200,449,990 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.75 | $3,200,449,990 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.75 | $3,200,449,990 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.75 | $3,200,449,990 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.74 | $3,197,602,189 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.75 | $3,200,449,990 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.75 | $3,200,449,990 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.76 | $3,200,449,990 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.74 | $3,197,582,903 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.83 | $3,267,129,932 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.78 | $3,217,866,440 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.83 | $3,267,129,932 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.83 | $3,267,129,932 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.83 | $3,267,129,932 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.83 | $3,267,129,932 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.87 | $3,286,418,340 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.83 | $3,267,129,932 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.83 | $3,267,129,932 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.83 | $3,267,129,932 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.83 | $3,267,129,932 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.83 | $3,267,129,932 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.83 | $3,267,129,932 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.84 | $3,290,414,739 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.84 | $3,290,414,739 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.84 | $3,290,414,739 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.84 | $3,290,414,739 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.84 | $3,290,414,739 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.84 | $3,290,414,739 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.84 | $3,293,422,689 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.84 | $3,293,422,689 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.84 | $3,293,422,689 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.84 | $3,293,422,689 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.84 | $3,293,422,689 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.84 | $3,293,422,689 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.84 | $3,293,422,689 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.84 | $3,293,422,689 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.85 | $3,296,640,656 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.85 | $3,296,640,656 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.85 | $3,296,640,656 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.85 | $3,296,640,656 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.85 | $3,296,640,656 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.85 | $3,296,640,656 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.85 | $3,296,640,656 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.89 | $3,329,549,098 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.89 | $3,329,549,098 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.89 | $3,329,549,098 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.89 | $3,329,549,098 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.89 | $3,329,549,098 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.92 | $3,343,703,197 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.93 | $3,355,000,016 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.93 | $3,355,000,016 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.93 | $3,355,000,016 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.93 | $3,355,000,016 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.93 | $3,355,000,016 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.93 | $3,355,000,016 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.93 | $3,355,000,016 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.93 | $3,355,000,016 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.93 | $3,355,000,015 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.93 | $3,356,468,196 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.93 | $3,356,468,196 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.93 | $3,356,468,196 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.93 | $3,356,468,196 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.93 | $3,356,468,196 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.93 | $3,356,468,197 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.93 | $3,356,468,197 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.93 | $3,356,468,470 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.93 | $3,356,468,470 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.93 | $3,356,468,470 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.93 | $3,356,468,470 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.93 | $3,356,332,106 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.93 | $3,356,332,106 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.93 | $3,356,332,106 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.94 | $3,360,072,679 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.94 | $3,360,072,679 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.94 | $3,360,072,679 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.94 | $3,360,072,679 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.94 | $3,360,072,679 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.94 | $3,360,072,679 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.94 | $3,360,072,679 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.94 | $3,360,072,679 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.94 | $3,360,072,679 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.94 | $3,360,880,827 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.94 | $3,360,880,827 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.94 | $3,360,880,827 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.94 | $3,360,880,827 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.94 | $3,360,880,827 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.94 | $3,360,880,827 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.94 | $3,360,880,826 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.94 | $3,360,880,826 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.94 | $3,360,880,826 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.94 | $3,360,880,826 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.95 | $3,363,913,833 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.96 | $3,369,479,051 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.96 | $3,369,479,051 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.96 | $3,369,479,051 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.96 | $3,369,479,051 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.96 | $3,369,479,051 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.96 | $3,369,739,920 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.96 | $3,381,388,056 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.96 | $3,381,388,056 | 13 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.