Chime Financial Inc (CHYM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.76+0.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHYM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 309 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 120 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CHYM — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-05
Chief Financial Officer — Matthew Newcomb: Mr. Newcomb is stepping down as CFO with an orderly transition plan in place.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management believes in the company's value and growth.
Supportive ifChime starts share repurchases under the $200 million program.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur within the next six months.
Why it matters: The recent earnings miss could affect how investors view Chime's growth potential.
Worry ifInvestor feelings get better as the stock price rebounds after the earnings miss.
Less concerning ifInvestor feelings get worse with more drops in stock price after the earnings miss.
Why it matters: Achieving this EBITDA range shows Chime is managing costs well while growing. It is crucial for financial health.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA reported between $416M and $431M for 2026.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA reported outside the $416M to $431M range for 2026.
Why it matters: The workforce cuts will show if Chime can work better and make more money.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin goes above 16% in Q3.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin drops or stays below 15% in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$256 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $593 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,114 loss on $10,000 · 41.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This growth range shows if Chime can maintain its strong momentum. It tests management's growth target for the year.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported between $633 million and $643 million, showing 20% to 22% growth year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: This range shows if Chime is on track to meet its adjusted EBITDA target for the year.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA was between $72 million and $77 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $72 million in Q2.
Why it matters: If they meet or exceed this guidance, it shows strong growth and market trust.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was between $680 million and $690 million. This shows strong growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $680 million. This suggests growth is slowing down.
Why it matters: The share buyback plan shows that management trusts the company's financial health.
Supportive if$200 million in shares repurchased within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo shares were repurchased. There are also big delays in the program.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it may signal a slowdown in the sector. This could affect Chime's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is above average. This shows that it is still expanding.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in growth momentum after strong Q2 results. It could raise concerns about future performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was between $680 million and $690 million. This is less than 25% growth from last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue exceeds $690 million, showing strong growth momentum.
Why it matters: Slower growth in Active Members could signal weakening engagement and market share. This is critical for future revenue.
Worry ifActive Members growth reported below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifActive Members growth remains at or above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: If Chime Prime membership grows faster, it shows strong engagement. This can lead to more money per member.
Supportive ifChime Prime members generate more than double the ARPAM of average members.
Worry ifChime Prime membership growth stagnates or declines.