Cincinnati Financial (CINF)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$171.10-2.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CINF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -16.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
CINF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 27, 2026, Cincinnati Financial Corporation issued the attached news release titled “Cincinnati Financial Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Results,” furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. On July 27, 2026, the company also distributed the attached information titled “Supplemental Financial Data,” furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. This report should not be deemed an admission a…
Why it matters: The combined ratio shows how profitable a company is. A ratio above 98% may mean trouble.
Worry ifThe combined ratio was below 92%. This shows strong underwriting performance.
Less concerning ifThe combined ratio was over 98%. This shows possible problems with underwriting.
Why it matters: Growth over 4% shows strong market demand and good pricing.
Supportive ifQ2 net written premiums growth exceeds 4%.
Worry ifQ2 net written premiums growth falls below 4%.
Why it matters: Growing faster than this rate shows strong performance in the investment portfolio.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 investment income growth was above 11.7%.
Worry ifQ2 2026 investment income growth was below 11.7%.
Why it matters: Progress on the buyback can signal confidence in financial health and support share value.
Supportive ifCompany says it completed a buyback of at least 5 million shares.
Worry ifNo big buyback activity is reported in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $225 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,241 loss on $10,000 · 12.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company aims for EPS of $15.17. A revision could signal performance issues.
Worry ifManagement confirms they are on track to meet or exceed the EPS target of $15.17.
Less concerning ifManagement revises EPS guidance down from $15.17 due to poor performance.
Why it matters: A combined ratio over 100% means losses in underwriting. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 combined ratio is over 100%. This shows losses in underwriting.
Less concerning ifQ3 combined ratio is under 100%. This shows profits in underwriting.
Why it matters: Slower premium growth may show weaker demand or pricing issues.
Worry ifNet written premiums growth below 3% in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet written premiums growth exceeds 5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Details about the buyback program may show that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifManagement shares a clear amount for the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo details or updates on the share buyback program are provided in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: More agency appointments can drive premium growth and enhance market presence.
Supportive ifNew agency appointments exceed 200 in Q3.
Worry ifNew agency appointments fall below 100 in Q3.
Why it matters: Slower growth in investment income can hurt profits. Management is focused on this.
Worry ifInvestment income growth slows to below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifInvestment income growth stays above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: More agency appointments can drive premium growth. This aligns with management's growth strategy.
Supportive ifNew agency appointments exceed 220 in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifNew agency appointments fall below 220 in H2 2026.