Cincinnati Financial (CINF)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$171.10-2.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CINF
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $171 CINF trades at 1.6× p/b, below its 1.7× p/b peer median, but our blended $168 fair value is roughly in line with the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $175–$200. Note: our $168 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($175–$200). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $197.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $598.46 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $793.94 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $69.92 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$175.00 – $200.00 (median $197.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-07-28
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $153.26 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $184.05 | 1.7 | 107.07 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $147.77 | 6.8 | 21.81 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $136.56 | 14.0 | 9.75 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $128.01 | 1.4 | 89.62 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $112.61 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $173.06 | 17.8 | 9.75 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $155.23 | 14.0 | 11.08 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $278.17 | 1.7 | 161.83 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $224.74 | 6.8 | 33.17 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $113.10 | 14.0 | 8.07 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $75.21 | 1.4 | 52.65 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $143.33 | 17.8 | 8.07 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $366.36 | 1.7 | 213.13 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $297.22 | 6.8 | 43.87 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $99.74 | 14.0 | 7.12 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $52.76 | 1.4 | 36.94 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $126.41 | 17.8 | 7.12 | Analyst | high |