NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-07-08
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $181.56. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $189 CINF trades at 1.9× p/b, in line with its 1.8× p/b peer median — but our blended $167 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $198 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $795.83 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $815.91 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $67.47 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $152.23 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $175.91 | 1.8 | 100.09 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $163.40 | 7.5 | 21.88 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $156.97 | 15.3 | 10.29 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $126.29 | 1.5 | 82.34 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $109.57 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $185.97 | 18.1 | 10.29 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $174.37 | 15.3 | 11.43 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $257.35 | 1.8 | 146.43 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $248.52 | 7.5 | 33.28 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $172.63 | 15.3 | 11.32 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $124.34 | 1.5 | 81.07 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $204.51 | 18.1 | 11.32 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $331.66 | 1.8 | 188.71 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $328.66 | 7.5 | 44.01 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $170.85 | 15.3 | 11.20 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $123.06 | 1.5 | 80.24 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $202.40 | 18.1 | 11.20 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
