Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Columbia Financial, Inc. (CLBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.00-1.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.35 → 0.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CLBK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stable or growing EPS near $0.78 in 2027 | The company has shown recent earnings beats and stable leadership transitions. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.74 in FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.14 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.78 in FY 2027. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20260.14 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a bank integration and execution story, not a steady compounder at this stage. The long-term thesis is on watch: merger and capital-raising milestones are progressing, but recent financial performance is weak and management execution is rated volatile.
The evidence describes CLBK as cheap versus peers, but also rates its value as expensive overall, with low model confidence. The expectations gap is slightly negative, while the priced-in assessment says fragility is low and the current valuation is justified rather than reflecting the full set of execution and earnings risks.
Near term, earnings quality and recent performance remain fragile: CLBK missed its latest quarter, and its momentum and composite insight weakened after the release. There is operating progress in the September quarter, with higher net interest margin and net interest income, but acquired balances from Northfield make the change harder to assess; integration continues, with system conversion planned for the first quarter of 2027.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on completing Northfield integration and showing that improved interest income can persist beyond acquisition effects. A guidance cut or rate cuts are stated risks; continued strong earnings and higher guidance from sector peers would support sector momentum.
For the 1–3 year view, CLBK has meaningful integration work and a weak recent earnings record, despite progress on its merger, public-company conversion, and interest income. The evidence supports close attention to execution, with confidence limited by weak performance and low valuation-model confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Columbia Financial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Smooth leadership transition with no major disruptions. |
| Intact |
| Significant leadership disruption or resignations |
No disruption reported COO transition via external hire and board expansion noted; no negative leadership events reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Merger completion and 50% EPS accretion by 2027 | Columbia Financial is completing a merger expected to boost EPS by 50% in 2027. | Improving | Merger not completed or EPS accretion less than 30% by FY 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to about $507M in 2027 | A primary condition in Columbia Financial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $507 million in FY 2027. | Intact | Revenue falls below $347 million in FY 2026 | Revenue: $122.251M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $507 million in FY 2027. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026122,251,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.35 → $0.76 · observed estimates
$0.51B → $0.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.35 | $507,076,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.35 | $507,076,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.35 | $507,076,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.35 | $507,076,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.35 | $507,076,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.35 | $507,076,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.35 | $507,076,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.35 | $507,076,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.35 | $507,076,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.55 | $504,928,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.35 | $552,103,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.35 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.77 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.77 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.77 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.77 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.77 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.77 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.77 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.77 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.77 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.77 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.77 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.77 | $560,809,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.76 | $560,622,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.76 | $560,622,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.