Columbia Financial, Inc. (CLBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.00-1.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CLBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CLBK — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-29
Other Events On October 29, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.05 per share, payable on November 25, 2026, to shareholders of record as of November 10, 2026.
Why it matters: Management plans to move Northfield onto Columbia’s core system in Q1 2027. A smooth move can limit service problems and extra costs.
Watch forThe bank finishes the system switch in Q1 2027. No major service outage or added conversion charge is reported.
Also watch forThe conversion slips past Q1 2027, or the bank reports major service problems or added costs tied to the move.
Why it matters: The margin rose to 2.96% in Q3, from 2.44% in Q2. This tests whether stronger interest income lasts as the combined bank settles.
Watch forNet interest margin is above 2.96% in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forNet interest margin falls below 2.96% in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Q3 loan growth mostly came from Northfield. Management also plans to add commercial bankers and gain market share, so organic growth remains unproven.
Supportive ifA later report shows gross loans rising from $11.4 billion at September 30, 2026. Management links the growth to new lending, not acquired loans.
Worry ifGross loans stay at or below $11.4 billion, or reported growth comes only from acquisitions.
Why it matters: Q3 core net income was $40.6 million, while reported net income was $5.2 million. Future results will show whether core profit holds after one-time deal costs fade.
Watch forQuarterly core net income remains at or above $40.6 million in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forQuarterly core net income falls below $40.6 million in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $211 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,487 loss on $10,000 · 54.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.