Columbia Financial, Inc. (CLBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.700.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CLBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
CLBK — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-30
Other Events On July 30, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.05 per share, payable on August 26, 2026, to shareholders of record as of August 12, 2026.
Why it matters: The merger adds $5.8 billion in assets. It could change Columbia's market position significantly.
Supportive ifColumbia reports a big rise in total assets after the merger. They now have over $18 billion.
Worry ifTotal assets are still under $18 billion after the merger.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact Columbia's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: This agreement may help raise capital through stock offerings, impacting growth.
Supportive ifSuccessful stock offerings lead to more money for the company.
Worry ifFailure to raise expected capital through the offerings.
Why it matters: This conversion could enhance capital access and support future growth.
Supportive ifAn announcement that the conversion process is complete.
Worry ifProblems or rules that slow down the conversion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $231 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,457 loss on $10,000 · 54.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This merger is key for growth. Progress could signal stronger future earnings.
Supportive ifA public announcement about a big step in the merger process.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the merger timeline.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect how well the merger goes and future growth plans.
Watch forColumbia names new leaders that support the merger.
Also watch forNo new leader changes are announced after the merger.
Why it matters: Growth in non-interest income shows more diversity. It helps make revenue more stable.
Supportive ifQ3 non-interest income growth was above 6.5%.
Worry ifQ3 non-interest income growth was below 6.5%.
Why it matters: Approvals are key for the merger to move forward. This merger can help Columbia grow.
Supportive ifColumbia gets all the final approvals needed for the merger.
Worry ifRegulatory bodies can deny or delay approvals. This stops the merger.
Why it matters: The conversion is expected to enhance capital and support growth. It is crucial for future operations.
Supportive ifStock performance gets much better after the conversion is done.
Worry ifStock performance goes down or stays the same after the conversion.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company's financial health. It also shows their commitment to shareholders.
Watch forThe company pays the declared dividend of $0.05 per share on time.
Also watch forThe company delays or cancels the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Higher provisions might mean more credit risk. This could hurt future profits.
Worry ifQ3 provision for credit losses was above $4.3 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 provision for credit losses was below $4.3 million.
Why it matters: This merger is key for growth and expanding Columbia's market presence. It adds significant assets and enhances their capital base.
Supportive ifThe merger will close on July 20, 2026. Updates on integration will be provided.
Worry ifThe merger faces delays or regulatory issues that push back the closing date.
Why it matters: A stable or growing net interest margin shows good management of income and expenses. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifNet interest margin reported above 2.40% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifIf the net interest margin drops below 2.40%, it may mean problems in making money.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level show good financial results. This follows the merger and conversion.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share reported above $0.15.
Worry ifIf earnings per share drop below $0.15, it means performance is weaker than expected.