Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Chatham Lodging Trust (CLDT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.10+0.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CLDT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share at $0.1 | The company keeps paying a steady $0.1 dividend per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.1 in 2026 | Dividend per share: $0.10 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share = $0.1. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 20260.1 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a hotel real estate recovery and execution story, not yet a proven earnings compounder, since earnings quality is still loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact and has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, with recent financial performance in the industry’s top half.
The valuation evidence is mixed: CLDT is tagged as cheap versus peers, but also shows a sizable premium versus peers, so the relative-value picture is not simple. The priced-in signal is justified, with low fragility; the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, recent execution is supportive: revenue guidance was raised, revenue increased from Q1 to Q2, and the six-hotel acquisition exceeded underwriting expectations while contributing to margin expansion. The quarterly dividend per share was also raised in both quarters, though the company remains loss-making and has a 28% estimated miss probability, with smaller size and erratic earnings surprises as cautions.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on maintaining raised guidance and continuing to integrate the six acquired hotels; reversing the guidance increase would also damage credibility. Fed rate cuts could support the real estate sector, while weakness in sector bellwethers could remove that support.
For the 1-to-3-year view, CLDT has improving operating evidence and an intact thesis, but losses and mixed valuation signals leave execution and sector conditions important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Dividend In June, the board of trustees declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.10 per share and a preferred dividend of $0.41406 per share, payable on July 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2026.” “Jeffrey H. Fisher, Chatham’s president and chief executive officer, stated, “As this proves, we are executing across multiple levels to enhance shareholder returns and our updated hotel EBITDA and AFFO per share guidance has been increased a strong 11 percent and 15 percent, respectively.”
Generate positive free cash flow per share | The company keeps paying a steady $0.1 dividend per share. | Intact | Free cash flow per share falls below $0.1 in FY26 | Free cash flow: $12.207M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.1 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202612,207,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Dividend In June, the board of trustees declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.10 per share and a preferred dividend of $0.41406 per share, payable on July 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2026.” “Jeffrey H. Fisher, Chatham’s president and chief executive officer, stated, “As this proves, we are executing across multiple levels to enhance shareholder returns and our updated hotel EBITDA and AFFO per share guidance has been increased a strong 11 percent and 15 percent, respectively.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain gross margin near 34% | Profit margins are expected near 34%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 33.5% in FY26 | Gross margin: 40.69% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 33.5% to 34.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202640.691768 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of $308M to $314M in 2026 | A primary condition in Chatham Lodging Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >= $308 million. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $308 million in FY26 | Revenue: $87.804M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $308 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202687,804,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.11 → $-0.10 · observed estimates
$0.32B → $0.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.11 | $322,173,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.11 | $322,173,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.11 | $322,173,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.11 | $322,173,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.11 | $322,173,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.11 | $322,506,380 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.11 | $322,173,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.11 | $322,506,380 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.11 | $322,173,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.11 | $322,173,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.11 | $322,506,380 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.11 | $322,506,380 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.11 | $322,506,380 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.11 | $322,506,380 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.10 | $326,685,130 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.11 | $327,745,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.10 | $326,685,130 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.10 | $326,685,130 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.10 | $327,745,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.10 | $326,685,130 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.10 | $327,745,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.10 | $326,685,130 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.10 | $326,685,130 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.10 | $326,685,130 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.10 | $326,685,130 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.10 | $326,685,130 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.10 | $326,685,130 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.10 | $327,809,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.10 | $327,900,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.10 | $328,810,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.10 | $328,810,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.10 | $328,810,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.10 | $328,810,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.10 | $328,810,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.10 | $328,810,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.10 | $328,810,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.10 | $328,810,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.10 | $328,810,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.10 | $328,810,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.10 | $330,010,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.10 | $330,010,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.10 | $330,010,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.10 | $330,010,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.10 | $330,010,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.10 | $330,010,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.10 | $330,010,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.10 | $330,010,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.10 | $330,010,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.10 | $330,010,750 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.