Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.27-12.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CLF
How strong the business is — where it ranks within its sector on capital efficiency and cash generation, and how well management has been executing.
How this business ranks within materials on a research-validated quality screen. As of 2026-11-05.
The screen ranks CLF against its sector on four durable signals: share dilution, return on capital, free-cash-flow yield, and FCF margin. Historically the highest-quality names tended toward better typical outcomes and fewer bad years over multi-year holds (strongest at three years, modest at one), and that pattern showed up even before the price moved. It characterizes business quality, not price direction.
Each leg is a sector-relative percentile (higher is better); 3 of 4 legs were available for this name. The composite is built from these four; the raw value follows each percentile for context.
A forward quality tilt, not a price prediction, and context for your own research rather than a recommendation. Not investment advice.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=2600).
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has committed to reducing debt and reaching a net-debt-to-EBITDA leverage level below 2.5x by mid-2027.
We expect fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA to further increase, even with typical fourth-quarter seasonality and planned maintenance outages.
Stated in 3 of 5 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Outlook The Company expects fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA 2 to be approximately $715 million, an increase from the third quarter as a result of increased pricing, partially offset by seasonality, increased maintenance outages, input costs and incentive compensation accruals.” “Even with extended maintenance outages in April and May, our second quarter adjusted EBITDA tripled from the Q1 level and Q3 adjusted EBITDA is expected to more than double Q2.” Operating income was $311.000 million in 2026-Q3.
While the current situation has not helped the timeline of a potential deal with POSCO, we continue to negotiate in good faith within the framework of our MoU toward a transaction that is accretive f…
Stated in 2 of 5 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Based on 2027 contract changes and prevailing price forecasts, the Company would expect 2027 adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion.” “We expect to finish the year on a positive note and enter 2027 with significant momentum and additional opportunities for upside, including the higher reset of fixed price contracts and much improved profits in Canada.”
Outlook The Company expects fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA 2 to be approximately $715 million, an increase from the third quarter as a result of increased pricing, partially offset by seasonalit…
Stated in 3 of 5 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Outlook The Company expects fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA 2 to be approximately $715 million, an increase from the third quarter as a result of increased pricing, partially offset by seasonality, increased maintenance outages, input costs and incentive compensation accruals.” “2 Outlook The Company expects third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA 2 to be approximately $575 million.”
In the meantime, as we concentrate on hot rolled products that actually have a market, total production tonnage at Stelco will be maintained, Stelco’s contribution to Cliffs’ EBITDA will further incr…
Stated in 2 of 5 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In the meantime, as we concentrate on hot rolled products that actually have a market, total production tonnage at Stelco will be maintained, Stelco’s contribution to Cliffs’ EBITDA will further increase, and approximately 2,000 Canadian jobs are preserved.”” “In addition, we are beginning to see meaningful improvement in the Canadian market, positioning Stelco to return to generating significant earnings."”
Over the trailing year it converted -0.12x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates (low R² over the window).
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2453).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-11-05.
“We expect fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA to further increase, even with typical fourth-quarter seasonality and planned maintenance outages.”
“Cliffs’ Chairman and CEO, Lourenco Goncalves, said: “The second quarter marked another step in returning to the earnings power this company is capable of and has demonstrated in the past.”
“As we move through the year, each quarter is expected to improve sequentially, as the momentum already visible in both our order book and pricing continues to translate into earnings and cash flow.”
“While the current situation has not helped the timeline of a potential deal with POSCO, we continue to negotiate in good faith within the framework of our MoU toward a transaction that is accretive f…”
“This remains the number one strategic priority for both Cleveland-Cliffs and POSCO, and engagement between the teams is active and ongoing.”
“Outlook The Company expects fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA 2 to be approximately $715 million, an increase from the third quarter as a result of increased pricing, partially offset by seasonalit…”
“Additionally, the Company maintains the following previously guided expectations for the full-year 2026, including: • Steel shipment volumes maintained at approximately 16.5-17.0 million net tons • C…”
“2 Outlook The Company maintains the following previously guided expectations for the full-year 2026, including: • Steel shipment volumes maintained at approximately 16.5-17.0 million net tons • Capit…”
“In the meantime, as we concentrate on hot rolled products that actually have a market, total production tonnage at Stelco will be maintained, Stelco’s contribution to Cliffs’ EBITDA will further incr…”
“In addition, we are beginning to see meaningful improvement in the Canadian market, positioning Stelco to return to generating significant earnings."”