Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.50+1.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Cleveland-Cliffs aims to grow revenue above $4.9 billion in 2026. The company is improving cash flow from operations, reducing losses from $472 million to $325 million. Tariff relief and a GM supplier win could boost sales. Cost controls may improve profit margins.
The company still loses money and cash flow is negative. Cost pressures may hurt profits further. The steel sector faces headwinds and tough competition. The stock is down 35% from its high.
The market expects about 9% revenue growth but prices in high risk. Our fair value is about double the Street median price target. The stock is cheap versus peers but unprofitable.
Breaks if: Cash flow remains below -$325 million over next year
Return to positive operating cash flow and improve cash generation.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving profitability and managing capital expenditures. The current thesis state is cautious, given the recent weak financial performance and high risk factors.
The market appears to price in a fragile situation, with an expensive valuation compared to peers despite the company's weak performance. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for the challenges CLF faces.
Management has shown mixed results in achieving its priorities, with capital expenditures on track but inconsistent steel shipment volumes. Recent improvements in adjusted EBITDA suggest potential for better profitability, but the overall financial performance remains weak.
The thesis hinges on key factors such as management's ability to maintain guidance, inflation trends, and performance of sector bellwethers. A cut in guidance or continued weak results could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company announced a $1 billion modernization plan. This plan may lower operating costs and improve performance. However, the latest earnings report missed expectations. Analysts maintain a neutral 'Hold' rating with a target of $12.28. The broader market did not support the stock's rise.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating cash flow improved from negative $325 million in 2026-Q1 to positive $230 million in 2026-Q2, marking a return to positive free cash flow. This matches management's statements and shows delivering progress on cash flow.
“Operating cash flow of $230 million, positive free cash flow returned”
“Operating cash flow negative $325 million”
“Operating cash flow negative $13 million”
“Operating cash flow negative $143 million”
Breaks if: Operating income fails to improve or worsens
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $4.9 billion in FY26
Breaks if: No positive impact from tariff relief or GM win
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CLF's performance will depend on its execution of strategic priorities and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.