Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.27-12.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CLF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CLF — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. issued a news release announcing the second-quarter financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchang…
Why it matters: Cliffs kept this shipment range while quarterly volume rose from Q2 to Q3. The full-year result will test whether it can meet its volume plan.
Watch forFull-year 2026 steel shipments are between 16.5 million and 17.0 million net tons.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 steel shipments are below 16.5 million or above 17.0 million net tons.
Why it matters: Cliffs idled the lines because Canada had too much galvanized steel. A restart would show that the market has improved enough for those lines.
Watch forCliffs says Stelco has restarted its galvanizing lines.
Also watch forCliffs keeps the lines idle. It reports no improvement in Canada's galvanized steel market.
Why it matters: Management set this target after Q3 EBITDA beat its prior guide. A result above $715 million would extend the earnings rise.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA is reported at more than $715 million.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA is reported at less than $715 million.
Why it matters: Cliffs has said it is cutting debt and aims to reach this level by mid-2027. Meeting the target would confirm progress on its debt plan.
Supportive ifA company update reports net debt to EBITDA below 2.5x by mid-2027.
Worry ifA company update reports the ratio at or above 2.5x by mid-2027, or pushes the target past that date.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$227 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $635 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,818 loss on $10,000 · 48.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.