Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.50+1.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CLF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 43.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
CLF — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. issued a news release announcing the second-quarter financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchang…
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow would signal a return to strong earnings and cash generation.
Supportive ifCleveland-Cliffs makes positive free cash flow in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A good deal could improve Cliffs' market position. It may also increase shareholder value.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement of a deal with POSCO.
Worry ifNo updates on talks with POSCO.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow means the company is in good financial shape. It also shows it runs better.
Supportive ifQ2 cash flow from operations reported as positive.
Worry ifQ2 cash flow from operations remains negative.
Why it matters: Staying on track with capex helps improve operations and supports long-term growth.
Supportive ifCapital expenditures were at or near $700 million for 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending was much less than $700 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Higher car sales show strong demand and recovery.
Supportive ifCar sales were higher than in Q2.
Worry ifCar sales were lower than in Q2.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the company is recovering from past losses. It means better cost control.
Supportive ifOperating income is positive or much better in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income is still negative or worsens in Q3. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Higher prices would lead to better revenue and profits. This shows the market is improving.
Supportive ifAverage selling price per net ton of steel products increases above $1,048.
Worry ifAverage selling price per net ton of steel products declines below $1,048.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA shows better performance. It also shows better cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 is over $95 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 is below $95 million.
Why it matters: This would confirm management's guidance of strong earnings growth and cash flow improvement.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is above $575 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $575 million. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong demand and good efficiency in the steel market.
Supportive ifSteel shipment volumes reported at 16.5 million net tons for the year.
Worry ifSteel shipments fall below 16.5 million net tons. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: Staying on target shows financial discipline and supports future growth plans.
Supportive ifSpending is reported at about $700 million for the year.
Worry ifCapital expenditures are below $700 million. This may mean budget cuts.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$266 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $635 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,167 loss on $10,000 · 51.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.