Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp
Commercial Metals (CMC)
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-04
$62.22-6.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.97 → 6.91 EPS · FY ending Aug 31, 2028 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CMC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend at least $0.20 per share | Dividends rose 11% to $0.20 per share. | Intact | Dividend cut below $0.18 per share next year | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CMC is a cyclical materials business with a recent operational improvement story, rather than a pure growth compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, but management execution is mixed and company momentum has weakened.
The evidence describes CMC as cheap versus peers, with no major fragility signals and a justified pricing tag. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be demanding despite the peer discount, though confidence in this valuation reading is medium.
In the near term, strong fiscal 2026 results support the operating picture: core EBITDA rose, margins improved, and CMC reported an earnings beat. TAG progress and lower leverage are positives, while precast earnings fell short of management’s earlier expectations and recent momentum weakened; the next guidance update is a key risk.
The multi-year view depends on whether TAG continues to improve margins and whether the precast platform delivers more consistently despite regional residential softness. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued strength from materials bellwethers could sustain the tailwind, while weaker results or lower guidance could fade it.
CMC’s 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, backed by stronger results, margin gains, and leverage near management’s target. Mixed execution, weaker momentum, and sensitivity to sector conditions keep the outlook uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operational gains come from the TAG program. |
| Under Pressure |
| Core EBITDA margin falls below 10% next quarter |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net leverage below 2.0x by mid-2027 | The company is cutting debt with net leverage near 2.1x. | Intact | Net leverage remains above 2.1x by end of 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 11% annually | A primary condition in Commercial Metals's published investment case. The stated target is >=10.9% YoY revenue growth next 12 months. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.82 → $6.91 · observed estimates
$10.20B → $10.60B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | $6.82 | $10,197,973,937 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.82 | $10,197,973,937 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.82 | $10,197,973,937 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.82 | $10,197,973,937 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.82 | $10,197,973,937 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.82 | $10,197,973,937 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.82 | $10,197,973,937 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.80 | $10,194,950,391 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.80 | $10,194,950,391 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.99 | $10,180,958,337 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.99 | $10,180,958,337 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,908 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.93 | $10,181,287,049 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.97 | $10,218,429,906 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.97 | $10,218,429,906 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.97 | $10,218,429,906 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.97 | $10,218,429,906 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.96 | $10,226,462,735 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.96 | $10,226,462,735 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.96 | $10,226,462,735 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.96 | $10,226,462,735 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.93 | $10,211,338,367 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.93 | $10,211,338,367 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.93 | $10,211,338,367 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.93 | $10,211,338,367 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.96 | $10,261,000,581 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.67 | $10,443,974,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.67 | $10,443,974,696 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.66 | $10,459,282,096 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.02 | $10,636,862,877 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.02 | $10,636,862,877 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.91 | $10,608,808,248 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.91 | $10,608,808,248 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.91 | $10,608,808,248 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.91 | $10,608,808,248 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.91 | $10,608,808,248 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.91 | $10,608,808,248 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.91 | $10,608,808,248 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.91 | $10,608,808,248 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.91 | $10,600,427,423 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.91 | $10,600,427,423 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.91 | $10,600,427,423 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.91 | $10,600,427,423 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.91 | $10,600,427,423 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.91 | $10,600,427,423 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.91 | $10,600,427,423 | 7 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.