Commercial Metals (CMC)
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-05
$62.22-6.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CMC — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-13
Other Events. On October 13, 2026, Commercial Metals Company (NYSE: CMC) ("CMC") issued a press release announcing that the board of directors of CMC declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share of CMC common stock. The dividend will be paid on November 11, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on October 28, 2026. A copy of CMC's press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Europe Steel earned less than a year ago, in part because last year's result included a CO2 credit. Q1 offers a direct check on the rebound.
Supportive ifEurope Steel adjusted EBITDA tops $39.1 million in Q1, including the CO2 credit.
Worry ifEurope Steel adjusted EBITDA stays at or below $15.6 million in Q1 despite the CO2 credit.
Why it matters: Precast earnings missed management's prior view as home building slowed in some regions. A recovery would support the growth plan.
Supportive ifPrecast adjusted EBITDA tops $57 million, its Q4 level, as shipments and bookings rise year over year.
Worry ifPrecast adjusted EBITDA falls below $57 million, or bookings fall year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $374 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,996 loss on $10,000 · 30.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.