Commercial Metals (CMC)
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
$70.28+2.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
CMC — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-24
Other Events. On June 24, 2026, Commercial Metals Company (NYSE: CMC) ("CMC") issued a press release announcing that the board of directors of CMC declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share of CMC common stock. The dividend will be paid on July 15, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on July 6, 2026. A copy of CMC's press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this area is important for overall performance and profit.
Supportive ifCore EBITDA from North America Steel Group rises. This shows better margins and more volume.
Worry ifCore EBITDA from North America Steel Group declines or remains flat due to ongoing headwinds.
Why it matters: Progress on the TAG program is key for better margins. Success helps overall profits.
Supportive ifManagement says margins will grow due to TAG efforts in the next quarters.
Worry ifMargins stay the same or drop. This means TAG efforts are not working as expected.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback would signal strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the completion of the $600 million share buyback program.
Worry ifNo announcement of buyback completion by the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong cash flow. It also shows good financial control.
Supportive ifNet leverage reported below 2x in Q4 results.
Worry ifNet leverage remains above 2.1x in Q4 results.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share or higher.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend lower than $0.20 per share.
Why it matters: Strong backlogs and market conditions matter for CMC's finances. Growth in core EBITDA shows good execution.
Supportive ifCore EBITDA rises in Q4 due to strong domestic demand and backlog growth.
Worry ifCore EBITDA stays flat or drops in Q4. This shows weaker demand or execution problems.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal would show good financial health and smart use of money.
Supportive ifNet leverage is less than 2x after adjusting for acquisitions.
Worry ifNet leverage is above 2x when adjusted for acquisitions in mid-2027.
Why it matters: Insights from this event will clarify CMC's long-term strategy and growth outlook.
Watch forPositive comments and plans were shared during the Investor Day.
Also watch forThere is no clear strategy or negative news about market conditions.
Why it matters: Strong growth would show that CMC's plans are working and that people want their products.
Supportive ifCore EBITDA growth exceeds 10% sequentially from Q3 to Q4 fiscal 2026.
Worry ifCore EBITDA growth is less than 10% sequentially from Q3 to Q4 fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This acquisition is important for CMC's precast platform. It will help increase profits.
Supportive ifIf the acquisition closes and goes well, EBITDA could add $165 million to $175 million for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifIf there are delays or problems, EBITDA contributions may decrease.
Why it matters: The appeal outcome could affect CMC's finances and its reputation in the market.
Worry ifThe appeal leads to a good ruling for CMC, changing the previous decision.
Less concerning ifThe appeal is denied, upholding the previous adverse ruling against CMC.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal will grow CMC's precast platform. It will help CMC in the market.
Supportive ifThe deal for Foley Products is done. All regulatory approvals are in place.
Worry ifThe deal is delayed or fails because of regulatory problems.
Why it matters: More buybacks show management believes in the company's value and its future.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks over $100 million.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level show strong demand. They also show good cost control.
Supportive ifEarnings per share reported above $1.70 in Q4 results.
Worry ifEarnings per share reported below $1.50 in Q4 results.
Why it matters: A margin over 15% shows strong performance. It supports management's growth plans.
Supportive ifCore EBITDA margin exceeds 15% in Q4 results.
Worry ifCore EBITDA margin stays below 14% in Q4 results.
Why it matters: The buyback program shows confidence in the company's value. It also shows a commitment to returning cash to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare price stays stable or rises after the buyback announcement.
Worry ifShare price falls despite the buyback. This shows market doubt about the company's value.
Why it matters: Earnings will show if CMC continues strong growth and margin improvements. Investors will focus on core EBITDA and net earnings.
Supportive ifCore EBITDA increases year over year by more than 70%.
Worry ifCore EBITDA growth is less than 30% year over year.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $357 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,996 loss on $10,000 · 30.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.