Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$35.40+0.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMG
How strong the business is — where it ranks within its sector on capital efficiency and cash generation, and how well management has been executing.
How this business ranks within consumer discretionary on a research-validated quality screen. As of 2026-11-04.
The screen ranks CMG against its sector on four durable signals: share dilution, return on capital, free-cash-flow yield, and FCF margin. Historically the highest-quality names tended toward better typical outcomes and fewer bad years over multi-year holds (strongest at three years, modest at one), and that pattern showed up even before the price moved. It characterizes business quality, not price direction.
Each leg is a sector-relative percentile (higher is better); 3 of 4 legs were available for this name. The composite is built from these four; the raw value follows each percentile for context.
A forward quality tilt, not a price prediction, and context for your own research rather than a recommendation. Not investment advice.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=6999).
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
“Three consecutive quarters of positive comparable transaction growth demonstrates that our Recipe for Growth strategy is working,” said Scott Boatwright, Chief Executive Officer, Chipotle.
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Three consecutive quarters of positive comparable transaction growth demonstrates that our Recipe for Growth strategy is working,” said Scott Boatwright, Chief Executive Officer, Chipotle.” “Outlook For 2026, management continues to anticipate the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants.” Revenue was $3.293 billion in 2026-Q3.
““Three consecutive quarters of positive comparable transaction growth demonstrates that our Recipe for Growth strategy is working,” said Scott Boatwright, Chief Executive Officer, Chipotle.”
““Our positive results reflect the momentum we're building as our Recipe for Growth strategy continues to take shape,” said Scott Boatwright, Chief Executive Officer, Chipotle.”
““Our first quarter exceeded expectations as we advanced our Recipe for Growth strategy, delivering tangible progress across operations, digital, menu innovation, people, and development,” said Scott…”
“"This momentum will fuel our next phase of growth, driven by our 'Recipe for Growth' strategy which leans into what uniquely differentiates our brand to accelerate transactions and expand our footpri…”
“"Our best-in-class teams are focused on doubling down on restaurant execution, sharpening our marketing message, accelerating menu innovation and creating more engaging digital experiences to ensure…”
“I am optimistic that our positive momentum will continue as we further support our world-class people with new tools to improve execution, introduce new menu innovations, amplify our rewards program,…”
Outlook For 2026, management continues to anticipate the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 1…
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Outlook For 2026, management continues to anticipate the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants.” ““We're gaining traction with menu and digital innovation, making significant progress on our high-efficiency equipment rollout, and accelerating our global expansion with entry into three new markets this quarter.”
“We're gaining traction with menu and digital innovation, making significant progress on our high-efficiency equipment rollout, and accelerating our global expansion with entry into three new markets…
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We're gaining traction with menu and digital innovation, making significant progress on our high-efficiency equipment rollout, and accelerating our global expansion with entry into three new markets this quarter.” “Evolve the brand messaging and accelerate menu innovation and new occasions that drive demand into our restaurants; 3.”
Around 80% of new company-owned restaurants will have a Chipotlane • An estimated underlying full year effective tax rate between 24% and 26% before discrete items For 2027, management is anticipatin…
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Around 80% of new company-owned restaurants will have a Chipotlane • An estimated underlying full year effective tax rate between 24% and 26% before discrete items For 2027, management is anticipating the following: • 340 to 360 new company-owned restaurant openings in the U.S. and Canada • Around 15 to 25 company-owned and partner-operated restaurants outside the U.S. and Canada.” “Chipotlanes continue to perform well and are helping enhance guest access and convenience, as well as increase new restaurant sales, margins, and returns.”
Outlook For 2026, management continues to anticipate the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 1…
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Outlook For 2026, management continues to anticipate the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants.” “Outlook For 2026, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants.”
Over the trailing year it converted 1.53x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=4822).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity (low R² over the window).
17 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=6802).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-11-05.
““I am confident that we have a strong plan to return to positive transaction comps by the second half of the year, and during these uncertain times, we will continue to invest in the things that make…”
“"I want to make sure that as we continue to scale Chipotle, everything we do is in service of our guests or those who serve our guests which will enable us to achieve our long-term ambitious goals of…”
“Outlook For 2026, management continues to anticipate the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 1…”
“Outlook For 2026, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15…”
“Outlook For 2026, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales to be about flat • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15 international partne…”
“Outlook For 2026, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales to be about flat • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15 international partne…”
“Outlook For 2025, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales declines in the low-single digit range • 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over…”
“Outlook For 2025, management is anticipating the following: • About flat full year comparable restaurant sales • 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over 80% having a Chipotlane • A…”
“Outlook For 2025, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over 8…”
“Outlook For 2025, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low to mid-single digit range • 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with…”
““We're gaining traction with menu and digital innovation, making significant progress on our high-efficiency equipment rollout, and accelerating our global expansion with entry into three new markets…”
““We're seeing encouraging progress because we're focused on the right growth drivers—bringing meaningful menu innovation to our guests, deepening engagement through Chipotle Rewards, elevating hospit…”
““Our first quarter exceeded expectations as we advanced our Recipe for Growth strategy, delivering tangible progress across operations, digital, menu innovation, people, and development,” said Scott…”
“Evolve the brand messaging and accelerate menu innovation and new occasions that drive demand into our restaurants; 3.”
“"Our best-in-class teams are focused on doubling down on restaurant execution, sharpening our marketing message, accelerating menu innovation and creating more engaging digital experiences to ensure…”
“I am optimistic that our positive momentum will continue as we further support our world-class people with new tools to improve execution, introduce new menu innovations, amplify our rewards program,…”
““I am confident that we have a strong plan to return to positive transaction comps by the second half of the year, and during these uncertain times, we will continue to invest in the things that make…”
“"I want to make sure that as we continue to scale Chipotle, everything we do is in service of our guests or those who serve our guests which will enable us to achieve our long-term ambitious goals of…”
“Around 80% of new company-owned restaurants will have a Chipotlane • An estimated underlying full year effective tax rate between 24% and 26% before discrete items For 2027, management is anticipatin…”
“Around 80% of new company-owned restaurants will have a Chipotlane • An estimated underlying full year effective tax rate between 24% and 26% before discrete items Definitions The following definitio…”
“Outlook For 2026, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales to be about flat • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15 international partne…”
“Around 80% of company-owned restaurants will have a Chipotlane • An estimated underlying effective full year tax rate between 24% and 26% before discrete items 1 Restaurant level operating margin, ad…”
“Outlook For 2025, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales declines in the low-single digit range • 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over…”
“Outlook For 2025, management is anticipating the following: • About flat full year comparable restaurant sales • 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over 80% having a Chipotlane • A…”
“Outlook For 2025, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over 8…”
“Outlook For 2025, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low to mid-single digit range • 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with…”
“Outlook For 2026, management continues to anticipate the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 1…”
“Outlook For 2026, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15…”
“Outlook For 2026, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales to be about flat • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15 international partne…”
“Outlook For 2026, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales to be about flat • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15 international partne…”
“Outlook For 2025, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales declines in the low-single digit range • 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over…”
“Outlook For 2025, management is anticipating the following: • About flat full year comparable restaurant sales • 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over 80% having a Chipotlane • A…”
“Outlook For 2025, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over 8…”
“Outlook For 2025, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low to mid-single digit range • 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with…”